Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) March’s sharp decline in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment highlights the risks to the economy. While Germany would be hit harder than most by a trade war, for now the outlook is positive. 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) The fall-back in CPI inflation in February from 3% in January to 2.7% confirms that we have now reached a turning point, but doesn’t significantly diminish the case for a near-term interest rate hike. 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: What to make of the latest fall in the rupee? The latest fall in the Pakistani rupee has once again put the spotlight on the country’s precarious balance of payments position. Pakistan will soon be forced to either let the currency weaken much... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Japanese households and firms now both receive more in interest income than they pay out on their debt. That is making life difficult for banks. The main factor keeping them afloat is their sizeable... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The stronger-than-expected increase in Chilean GDP growth in Q4 was driven by a pick-up in domestic demand, and we expect the recovery to continue over the next year or so. Today’s data support our... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 4.0: what to look out for Vladimir Putin’s landslide victory in yesterday’s presidential election has barely caused a ripple in local markets. The focus will now turn to the appointment of a new cabinet, which may provide... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) Seasonal swings related to Chinese New Year pushed the trade balance into the red in February. However, we suspect that these moves will reverse in March. 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Inflation outturns weak The latest inflation data in the Nordic countries and Switzerland have generally been quite weak. Indeed, inflation in Switzerland slowed to a five-month low of 0.6% in February. The core rate was... 16th March 2018 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & UoM Cons. Confidence (Mar.) The strong rebound in industrial production in February was driven by an even larger gain in manufacturing output, and illustrates that the softer start to the year was just a blip. Meanwhile, the... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Middle-class families still struggling The 2016 Canadian Income Survey shows that the median household hasn’t benefitted meaningfully from economic growth in recent years. Real incomes of middle-class families have been largely stagnant... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The OBR is still too gloomy Following November’s Autumn Budget, we argued that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had become too pessimistic about the outlook for economic growth. Although the economy has performed... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The further decline in manufacturing sales volumes in January, broadly consistent with the drop in non-commodity exports already reported for that month, provides further evidence that the economy... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US tariff action on China would hit other EMs too Media reports suggest that the US is planning to impose more extensive tariffs on China. This could have a significant knock-on impact for a number of economies in Emerging Asia (Taiwan, Malaysia... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Cyclical recovery to gather momentum We expect growth in most countries in Latin America to accelerate over the course of this year as the region’s cyclical recovery gathers pace. Inflation is now bottoming out and in most places it will... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An escalation of trade tariffs poses a big threat You could argue that an escalation of global trade tariffs could actually benefit Australia and New Zealand in the near-term if it caused their currencies to weaken and led China to stimulate its own... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi royal tour highlights reform and geopolitical risks Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (known as MbS) is in the midst of a global tour, which has highlighted the challenges facing his Vision 2030 economic reforms as well as ongoing... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
