Europe Economics Weekly What does the Brexit transition deal mean for the EU? A key hurdle in securing a relatively smooth UK exit from the EU has been passed. The Brexit transition deal preserves the current economic relationship between the UK and the EU for 21 months after... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What impact will tariffs on China have on the rest of Asia? Donald Trump’s plans for a 25% tariff on up to $60bn of Chinese imports are unlikely to have much impact on the rest of Asia. However, as the market reaction today highlights, the threat of a further... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Recovery gathering momentum Recently-released GDP figures show that growth strengthened in both Nigeria and South Africa in Q4. The pickup in growth in Nigeria was mostly due to stronger activity in the non-oil sector, which... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Likely damage to China from tariffs only 0.1% of GDP The tariffs announced today will cause difficulties for some firms exporting from China but will have a barely perceptible impact on China’s wider economy. The key uncertainty now is whether President... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Mar.) Preliminary PMIs, published by Markit today, slipped at the end of the first quarter. But they still support our view that GDP in advanced economies will expand by a decent 2½% or so this year. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Kuczynski resignation unlikely to disrupt recovery The resignation of Peruvian president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) is likely to be followed by a smooth and swift transition of power to Vice President Martín Vizcarra. And with financial conditions... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A weak start to 2018 South Africa’s seems to have economy slowed in January, but the weakness of recent figures was exaggerated by the comparison with a strong performance at the end of 2017. We think that growth will... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) Despite February’s bigger-than-expected rise in retail sales volumes, the big picture is that spending growth is still pretty sluggish. But with the real pay squeeze coming to an end, the outlook for... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: fiscal squeeze & drought to weigh on growth Recently-released Q4 GDP data confirms that economic growth in Argentina softened at the end of last year, and we expect the economy to slow further over the course of 2018 as tighter fiscal policy... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth stable at the start of the year Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth has stabilised recently after a sharp slowdown since the middle of 2017. Economic conditions may improve in the near term as the government’s... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) While the manufacturing PMI weakened in March, it remains consistent with solid gains in industrial production. However, the hard data suggest that output will fall this quarter. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weak spending growth just a blip The latest data indicate that GDP growth was no more than 2.5% annualised in the first quarter, with real consumption growth slowing to around 2%. That would hardly be a disaster, but is disappointing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will productivity growth start to pick up? The weakness of euro-zone productivity growth since the global financial crisis can in part be attributed to cyclical factors. As these factors reverse, there is scope for economic growth to remain... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Iceland drop its remaining capital controls? While the Central Bank of Iceland’s forecasts imply that it intends to scale back its controls on foreign investment later this year, we think that it will end up leaving them unchanged until 2020. 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) The batch of Polish activity data for February suggests that the economy continued to expand at a rapid pace in Q1 of close to 5% y/y – broadly in line with Q4’s outturn. Rapid wage growth and looser... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Further falls in dwellings investment lie ahead While the recent rises in building approvals are encouraging, we doubt they are a sign that the drag on GDP growth from dwellings investment is already over. Indeed, we expect that dwellings... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
