Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The muted increase in retail sales in February leaves Q1 on track for the sharpest fall since 2014’s sales tax hike. However, the figures haven’t been a great guide to developments in private... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Growth to slow as housing boom cools We expect GDP growth to halve from 3.0% in 2017 to 1.5% in 2018, as tighter regulation and higher borrowing costs bring the housing boom to an abrupt end. We anticipate that growth will remain weak in... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has economic growth really slowed? Large variations between the different official measures of GDP growth have left it unclear whether the UK economy accelerated or slowed following the EU referendum. And a renewed divergence between... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bounce back in activity unlikely Both the Australian and New Zealand economies failed to regain any momentum at the end of 2017 with GDP rising by a slower than expected 0.6% q/q in New Zealand and just 0.4% q/q in Australia... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Prospects for the rural economy are bright After taking a significant hit in the aftermath of demonetisation in late 2016, India’s rural economy has regained momentum in recent months. Future prospects for the rural economy look bright, in... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The small decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in March from an 18-year high in February leaves the index still well above its historical average. The relationship between... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Better news at the start of Q1 Having slowed over the final quarter of last year, our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth nudged up for the first time in five months in January. 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What causes recessions? An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What causes recessions? An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped in most countries this month but still suggest that GDP growth in the region has remained strong at around 5% y/y in Q1. That... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Mar.), Trade & PPI (Feb.) The Swedish economy has lost some momentum of late, but growth still looks set to be healthy. And with inflationary pressures gradually rising, we expect the Riksbank to raise interest rates this year... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional growth stays strong in Q1 The latest activity figures suggest that Emerging Europe’s strong economic performance continued in the early months of this year. Russia’s recovery has resumed following a slowdown in the second half... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Fidesz to face tougher economic challenges in third term The ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition looks set to win another majority at the forthcoming Hungarian legislative elections, but after enjoying a period of strong GDP growth and low inflation in its current... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Jan.) The fairly modest rise in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in January suggests that the economy failed to gain much momentum at the start of the year. Looking ahead, we continue to expect GDP growth to... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Heavy oil price benchmark likely to rebound Prices of domestic heavy crude oil appear to be going sideways, despite rising world oil prices. This trend has persisted for a few months, but there are still good reasons to believe that these heavy... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The strong rise in durable goods orders in February was flattered by a rebound in transport orders, but the details showed an encouraging rebound in underlying capital goods orders. That suggests the... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
