China Economics Update Service sector holds up despite slower retail spending The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data released today points toward resilient service sector activity last quarter, with the booming IT sector more than offsetting a slowdown in retail spending... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF’s latest projections still too optimistic We agree with the IMF’s global GDP growth forecasts for 2018 but suspect that their forecasts for 2019 will need to be lowered. We think that the US and Chinese economies will slow by more than the... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Although underlying retail sales disappointed in June, upward revisions to earlier months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have accelerated to a healthy 3% annualised in the second... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q2) & Activity & Spending (Jun.) Official GDP growth edged down last month but, unsurprisingly, remained rapid and in line with the government targets. Debates about the true pace of growth aside, it’s noteworthy that whereas in... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal discipline slipping in Brazil The 2019 budget guidelines approved by Brazil’s Congress this week diluted measures to contain spending and reinforce our view that appetite for economic reform in the legislature is waning. Even if... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Case for policy easing continuing to build The release of disappointing credit data a month ago catalysed a deterioration in sentiment about China’s economy. Today’s even weaker figures will only add to those concerns, with the early signs... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil’s recovery? The hit to the Brazilian economy from May’s truck drivers’ strike already seems to be reversing. But the recent tightening of financial conditions means the recovery over the second half of the year... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP figures keep MPC on track, Brexit plan softened May’s GDP figures this week confirmed that the economy is starting to regain some momentum. That said, growth was still pretty anaemic, raising the possibility that the Monetary Policy Committee could... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan talks, markets tumble Turkish President Erdogan’s decisions this week to exclude investor-friendly members from his new cabinet and renew his calls for lower interest rates have rattled local financial markets and... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) A further slowdown in lending in June adds downside risks to economic growth and is likely to trigger a policy response. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria: Conditions improved in Q2 Survey and output figures released this week suggested that conditions in Nigeria and South Africa improved in Q2. South African retail sales figures out next week will probably provide more evidence... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war risks rise, but no panic yet Despite the further escalation in trade tensions between the US and China over the past week, there is little sign that policymakers are starting to panic. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Flood damage, Tokyo’s innovation crown Early signs are that this week’s floods in western Japan, for all their terrible human cost, have had only a small economic impact, though the affected regions are manufacturing centres. Meanwhile... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too early to sound all-clear on credit conditions Housing finance commitments have started to edge up again and suggest that house prices won’t fall much further for now. Households are taking the weaker housing market in their stride and APRA... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2 Advanced) Today’s advanced estimate of Singapore’s GDP suggests the economy lost some momentum in Q2, and we expect growth to cool further in the coming quarters against a backdrop of slower global growth and... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Manufacturing dominance will cushion tariff blow China has more to lose economically from a trade war than the US. But the damage as the Trump administration expands tariffs will be mitigated by China’s high market share in many of the targeted... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
