US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Although it fell in April, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index remains at a high level by past standards and suggests that the slowdown in spending growth at the start of this year... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Myanmar: still falling short of potential Myanmar’s civilian government has made progress in addressing some of the country’s problems since it came to power two years ago. However, major challenges remain. The Rohingya refugee crisis is... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA facing up to reality The Reserve Bank of Australia’s apparent downward revision to its previously published 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2018 shows once again that the RBA has been too hopeful. We suspect it will also... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further policy tightening in Singapore unlikely The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today moved to increase the slope of its nominal effective exchange rate policy band, a decision that amounts to a tightening of its policy stance. But with... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) The slight drop in consumer price inflation in March was due to another decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation picked up and is likely to accelerate further. As such, we remain comfortable... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone industrial production confirms that the sector made a soft start to 2018. But as this partly reflected temporary factors in Germany and the industrial surveys remain... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) Mexican industrial production returned to growth in February, and the data showed that the sector is continuing to benefit from a jump in construction and utilities output in the aftermath of... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Feb.) February’s activity data added to the evidence that the economy lost a little pace in Q1. But we don’t think that this will prevent the Monetary Policy Committee from raising interest rates again in... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Tight labour market finally boosting pay Revised data show that regular earnings expanded at the fastest pace in two decades at the start of this year, underlining that the tight labour market is finally generating stronger cost pressures... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Households remained fairly optimistic in April, despite the escalation in trade tensions between the US and China, with the Westpac measure of consumer confidence remaining above average for the fifth... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) The continued rise in machinery orders in February is a positive sign but we still expect business investment to fall in Q1. However, the medium-term outlook for capital spending remains positive. 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB survey reveals rising cost pressures The latest NFIB survey suggests the recent tax cuts aren’t providing much support to investment. But along with the March PPI data, it also provides further evidence that inflationary pressures are... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing production Growth in South Africa’s manufacturing sector cooled in February, providing another sign that the economy faltered a bit in Q1. Even so, we retain the view that growth will pick up later this year. 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Asia’s Tiger economies are getting harder to follow Despite the growing protectionist threat from the US, a combination of rising automation and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would a US-China trade war mean for Japan? The proposed tariffs on bilateral imports between the US and China would only have a small direct impact on Japan. Nor would Japan benefit much if buyers looked for cheaper alternatives. A further... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
