Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) The batch of Polish activity data for March suggests that the economy grew by 5% y/y in Q1 – in line with Q4’s outturn as a pick-up in retail spending growth offset a slowdown in industry. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Feb.) The sharp drop in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in February is probably overstating the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter. Nonetheless, it does appear that the economy started 2018 on a... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The manufacturing PMI suggests that activity in the sector remains healthy but firms are getting increasingly concerned about the outlook for external demand. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price surge having only limited impact on dollar The recent resurgence in oil prices should be good news for Canada but, since it is partly due to a temporary spike in geopolitical tensions, we expect prices to fall back later this year. Domestic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Tighter monetary policy on the horizon While the Nordics and Switzerland seem to have made slow starts to 2018, the outlook for these economies is generally pretty bright. Nevertheless, healthy rates of economic growth will push up... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Rising tensions boost prices Geopolitical concerns continued to be the main driver of commodities prices this week. In particular, fears that US sanctions could be broadened to include Russian producer, Nornickel, buoyed the... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Have the tax cuts flopped? The weakness of real consumption growth, which appears to have slowed to only 1% annualised in the first quarter, suggests that the recent tax cuts have so far failed to provide any meaningful boost... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges up as pollution controls ease Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the easing of the government’s pollution crackdown contributed to a pick-up in economic growth last month. But the rebound will likely prove short-lived. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The headline CPI inflation rate edged up to a three-year high of 2.3% in March, from 2.2%, but the Bank of Canada will be relieved to see that its new core inflation measures remained largely... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Worries about Germany are overdone Developments in Germany this week have increased concerns that the euro-zone’s growth engine is really starting to sputter. But we think that some of these concerns are overdone. After all, recent... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does falling inflation support or undermine case for rate hike? On the face of it, the fall-back in inflation in March has reduced the chances of a hike in interest rates in May. And Governor Carney’s comments appear to add weight to this view. However, an... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Slowdown on the horizon Despite some weakness in the first quarter, and concerns about protectionism, global economic growth is likely to hold up well this year. In advanced economies, the outlook for investment and... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Winds of change reach Ethiopia Ethiopia’s ruling party appointed a new prime minister on 2nd April, stabilising a situation that had been in flux since the previous incumbent’s resignation in February. Abiy Ahmed inherits a divided... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policymaking takes turn for the worse as elections approach Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan all face crucial elections over the next few months, and in each country, policymaking has recently taken a turn for the worse. In Malaysia and Indonesia we see little... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Low inflation continues to haunt New Zealand Looking past the temporary dip in inflation in the first quarter, which was partly driven by government decisions, there have been some encouraging signs about the outlook for inflation in New Zealand... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Policy tightening still a distant prospect The tight labour market is now boosting wage growth but not by enough to generate significant inflation. With the economy likely to slow this year, the Bank of Japan won’t be able to tighten policy... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
