UK Data Response GDP: Preliminary Estimate (Q1) While weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Q1 largely reflects the severe weather, and so should be transitory, it is probably the final nail in the coffin for an interest rate hike in May. However, a... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped a little this month, but is still consistent with strong GDP growth. The fall in the ESIs was... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1 Advanced) After hitting a multi-year high in Q4, Taiwan’s GDP growth edged down last quarter. We expect the economy to cool further over the quarters ahead. Domestic demand is likely to hold up fairly well... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French and Spanish GDP (Q4) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The first estimates of French, Spanish and Austrian GDP in Q1 suggest that quarterly growth in the euro-zone as a whole slowed from Q4’s 0.7% to around 0.4%. Meanwhile, there were no signs of rising... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth softens in Q1 Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the emerging world eased over Q1, which seems to have been driven by weaker activity in EM industry. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How big a threat are rising hedging costs for banks? An increase in hedging costs has undermined the appeal of investing in US$ bonds for Japanese investors. This won’t affect the profitability of banks much as their holdings of foreign bonds are small... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Tokyo CPI (Apr.) The slump in industrial production last quarter suggests that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, price pressures have started to moderate again even though the labour market remains very tight. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The gain in durable goods orders in March was entirely due to a surge in aircraft orders whereas underlying orders and shipments declined. That points to a sharp slowdown in business equipment... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) The pick-up in the CBI Distributive Trades Survey in April suggests that March’s weakness was largely a reflection of the severe weather conditions. And with real wages now on the rise, the outlook... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1) Korea’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year and should continue to hold up well in the coming quarters, supported by a turnaround in the tourism sector, robust global demand... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shrugs off softness in euro-zone The latest data suggest that, while GDP growth in Central Europe has now peaked, it remained strong at 4.5-5.0% y/y in Q1. That came in spite of a raft of softer activity and survey figures from key... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households already being squeezed by higher rates Consumption growth was the key driver behind the Canadian economy’s recent strength, particularly in the first half of last year. Since mid-2017, however, retail sales volumes have largely stagnated... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy can cope with higher oil prices We think the recent rise in oil prices is likely to be reversed. But even if prices rose steadily to $100pb, there would be little fallout for global growth, despite an increase in headline inflation. 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Growing less optimistic Despite underlying inflation coming in slightly stronger than the Reserve Bank of Australia expected in the first quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave interest rates at 1.5% at its next policy... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Apr.) The business surveys for April, published by Markit today, support our view that the weakness of some of the recent data for advanced economies probably doesn’t mark the start of a sustained slowdown. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
