US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.3 in April, from 59.3 in March, was worse than the consensus forecast and echoes the weaker tone of some of the early regional surveys. Nonetheless, on... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The 0.4%m/m rebound in monthly GDP in February, which was slightly stronger than the 0.3% consensus estimate, will renew speculation that the Bank of Canada will resume raising interest rates soon... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) Unsecured lending to households ground to a halt in March, raising concerns of a sharp pull-back in consumer spending growth. But other indicators suggest that the slowdown in lending will prove... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Time to turn bullish on Mexico? The outlook for Mexico’s economy is, despite worries over Nafta renegotiations and an Andrés Manuel López Obrador presidency, brighter than many seem to think. We’ve revised up our forecasts and now... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Manuf. PMI (Apr.) & Money and Credit Statistics (Mar.) The latest Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Survey suggested that the sector struggled to re-gain much momentum at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s Money and Credit figures revealed a... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected 1.1% q/q expansion in Mexican GDP in Q1 partly reflects the unwinding of some earthquake-related effects, but there are also signs of a broader rebound in activity. Today’s... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Germany to US tariffs? Germany faces little threat from the US aluminium and steel tariffs that might come into force this week, but would be hit harder than most other European economies if the US imposed broader tariffs... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Apr.) The small rise in the KOF Economic Barometer in April is consistent with continued healthy growth in Switzerland. But with inflation still very weak, we expect the SNB to strong monetary policy... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Election could make Malaysia’s problems worse Despite facing a resurgent opposition, Prime Minister Najib Razak is favourite to win a third term in a general election due on 9 th May. A victory for Najib would probably lead to a short-term fiscal... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Apr.) The official manufacturing PMI points to economic conditions having remained healthy in April. But with headwinds from the property sector and slower credit growth building, we don’t think this... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A soft start to 2018 The latest activity data suggest that Latin America’s economic recovery paused for breath in the first quarter of 2018. Our GDP Tracker points to growth of 2.5% y/y, unchanged from Q4. Activity data... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Why did the OBR get its fiscal forecasts so wrong? This week’s public finances figures showed that borrowing for the full 2017/18 financial year came in at £42.6bn, a whopping £16bn lower than that predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal would boost foreign investment This week brought a furious last-minute push from all sides to reach a provisional deal on updating NAFTA, ahead of July’s Mexican presidential election. The US congressional mid-term elections won’t... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The slowdown in GDP growth to 2.3% annualised in the first quarter, from 2.9% in the final quarter of last year, was a slight disappointment since the tax cuts should have provided an immediate boost... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s unchanged reading in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment provides further reassurance that the weakness of activity in Q1 does not mark the start of a sharp slowdown. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
