Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s PMI data showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to weaken as a result of austerity measures introduced at the start of this year, but we think that this slowdown will be temporary... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stabilises at the start of Q2 April’s PMIs suggest that, having slowed in Q1, growth in EM manufacturing steadied at the start of Q2. But the surveys brought further evidence that EM export growth may weaken in the coming months. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Business surveys for April, published today, suggest that global manufacturing conditions started Q2 in good shape and support our view that world GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Life still left in Brazil’s recovery Brazil’s economy has been losing momentum for several quarters, but it’s premature to think that the recovery is now over. Indeed, the conditions seem to be in place for growth to strengthen again in... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Synchronised slowdown probably just temporary The fact that the slowdown in advanced economies has been so broad-based raises the question whether it is more than just a blip. However, strong business surveys and fundamentals suggest that... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy pulling out of recession The Saudi economy appears to have returned to positive growth in the first few months of this year as a fading drag from the oil sector has more than offset a modest slowdown in the rest of the... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) Temporary factors explain some of the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q1. We doubt that the economy will regain all of its lost momentum, but surveys suggest that growth will pick back up. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s April PMIs point to stability China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs for April painted a relatively stable picture. It seems likely that the return of industrial capacity, after anti-pollution measures closed plants... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Today’s strong PMI reading – which recovered to 50.9 – may not tell us much; the measure has been highly volatile lately. Other indicators, however, also point to growing confidence in the economy. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs fell in most of Emerging Europe, supporting our view that regional growth has now peaked. The PMI dropped particularly sharply in Turkey, suggesting that a fairly... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s manufacturing PMIs provide some reassurance that the Swiss and Norwegian economies bounced back after making slow starts to the year. Sweden’s PMI was quite weak, but other survey indicators... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) We suspect that the recent deterioration in consumer sentiment reflects the impact of rising food prices. Either way, the survey still points to a rebound in spending on durable goods. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in April, suggesting that the sector strengthened a touch at the start of Q2. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers look relatively bright over the near... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The stability of the Caixin PMI last month suggests there is little immediate cause for concern over the health of China’s economy. That said, we do expect growth to start slowing again before long. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The April PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest that the region’s manufacturing sectors were lacklustre at the start of Q2. Focussing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation outlook remains subdued Inflationary pressures picked up in the first quarter in Australia, with underlying inflation rising to the bottom of the RBA’s 2-3% target for the first time in two years. In contrast, core inflation... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
