Canada Economics Weekly Poloz far too sanguine on debt build-up Earlier this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gave a remarkably sanguine speech on the build-up in household debt. He concluded that, although record-high debt represented a risk and means... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Another first-quarter blip The weakness in advanced economies early this year, which was largely driven by softer household spending, looks like a temporary setback rather than anything more ominous. Admittedly, economic growth... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) With the unemployment rate hitting an 18-year low of only 3.9% in April, the Fed is still going to push ahead and raise rates again in June, even though average hourly earnings growth remained muted. 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Drilling down into construction’s weak start to the year The slowdown in quarterly GDP growth in Q1 begs the question whether the economy is too fragile to withstand a tightening in monetary policy anytime soon. But the slowdown was almost entirely due to... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Did the euro-zone catch a cold in Q1? We think that temporary factors – including industrial action, cold weather and an outbreak of the flu – explain about 0.2 percentage points of the slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth from 0.7%... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Interest rates to rise as inflation concerns mount A further rise in inflation in April and more hawkish comments from policymakers suggest the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) is likely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting on Thursday... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending had a weak first quarter. And April’s Composite PMI implies that the pace of GDP growth is unlikely to fully rebound after a slow Q1... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Karnataka election a key bellwether for PM Modi In India’s decentralised political system, state elections such as the upcoming vote in Karnataka can have a direct bearing on economic policy. Arguably more significant though, a convincing... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Mar.) Swedish private sector production was unchanged in March meaning that growth slowed over Q1 as a whole. Nevertheless, this still implies that GDP expanded at a respectable rate. 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget preview: Electioneering outdoes fiscal restraint While the income tax cuts that the Australian Treasurer is planning to announce in Tuesday’s Federal Budget will provide a small boost to the economy over the next couple of years, we doubt they will... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Ageing unlikely to lower productivity growth any further Population ageing explains little of the recent slowdown in productivity growth. And with the pace of greying not picking up any further, we expect productivity growth to rebound to 1% per annum over... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Trade (Mar.), ISM Non-Mfg. (Apr.) & Productivity (Q1) The sharp decline in the nominal trade deficit to a six-month low of $49.0bn in March, from $57.7bn in February, was driven by an encouraging rise in exports. The data imply that net trade was broadly... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The small fall in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that, over Q1 as a whole, the sector stagnated, adding to the evidence that GDP growth in Q1 was quite soft. But there are a number... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nafta 2.0: what’s on the table? Following intensive talks last month, a preliminary new Nafta deal appears to be within reach. While it could still struggle to pass through legislatures in each country, the deal that looks to be on... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Apr.) The slight pick-up in the services PMI in April will do a little to assuage fears that the economy has suffered a loss of underlying momentum and makes the chance of an interest rate hike next week... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus China & Africa: Setting the record straight Perceptions of the economic ties between China and Africa are often based on inaccurate assumptions. In this Focus we debunk three key myths. The China-Africa relationship is not as state-driven, as... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
