Asia Economics Weekly Korea: A one-year progress report on President Moon The highlight of Moon Jae-in’s first year as president has been the improvement in relations with North Korea. On the economic front, however, Moon has largely steered clear of the kind of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How well is Japan prepared for the digital revolution? Investment in IT equipment and infrastructure has fallen in recent years and there has been no push to raise the low level of university enrolment in related subjects. Still, the country’s ICT... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income tax cuts not a game changer for consumption The income tax cuts announced in this week’s 2018/19 Federal Budget are not enough to prevent consumption growth in Australia from slowing this year, especially given taxpayers won’t see the bulk of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM weakness to contribute to global slowdown The current troubles in Argentina and Turkey are not the start of a systemic emerging markets crisis, but we do think that EM growth will slow this year. With a US-led slowdown in advanced economies... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: What next for monetary policy post-election While Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at today’s scheduled monetary policy meeting, the outlook for monetary policy has been thrown into considerable uncertainty following... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update IMF or not – Argentina to fall into recession this year The news that Argentina has started talks with the IMF over a full-blown bailout has masked the fact that – deal or no deal – the economy is likely to fall into recession this year. We now expect GDP... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stumbled in Q1 Today’s activity data suggest that growth faltered in Q1. Recent surveys, however, point to improving conditions, and we maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 2.0% over 2018 as a whole. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Mar.) March’s activity figures did little to support suspicions that the overall economy grew a bit more quickly in the first quarter than the preliminary GDP figures suggest. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.) The Economy Watchers Survey was little changed in April and points to a further slowdown in consumer spending and sluggish industrial activity. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) A pick-up in economic growth in the Philippines in Q1 means that we have raised our forecast for 2018 as a whole from 6.0% to 6.5%. However, this still implies a slowdown in the quarters ahead, as... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Malaysia's shock election Today’s shock victory for former-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia’s general election could have far-reaching consequences for the economy. In the near term, there is likely to be a sharp... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak Q1 GDP largely due to temporary factors Euro-zone GDP data for Q1 were pretty weak. Indeed, quarterly growth in the euro-zone economy slowed from 0.7% in Q4 to just 0.4%, its weakest rate since Q3 2016. And national data showed that growth... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) March’s improvements in German industrial production and the trade balance support our view that while Q1 was a pretty poor quarter, this will not mark the start of a sustained economic slowdown. 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) The sharper than anticipated easing in real retail sales growth in the first quarter points to a notable slowdown in real consumption growth last quarter. Moreover, the stagnation in nominal retail... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending (Mar.) The fall in household spending in March suggests that private consumption dipped last quarter. And with other areas of demand broadly flat, we reiterate our forecast that GDP contracted by 0.1% q/q... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Indonesia’s growth eased to 5.1% y/y in Q1, from 5.2%, and we see little prospect of a rebound. With policymakers running out of scope to stimulate the economy further, we expect growth to remain... 7th May 2018 · 1 min read
