Japan Economics Update BoJ still holding fast to ultra-loose policy The Bank of Japan has recently been expressing greater concern about the impact of ultra-loose monetary policy on financial stability. But Governor Kuroda today insisted that the key focus of policy... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack UAE the latest to loosen fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs that governments across the Gulf are responding to higher oil prices by ramping up spending. Both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest emirates that make up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s requirements for a rate rise Governor Lowe outlined in a speech earlier this week that before interest rates are raised from their record low of 1.5% the RBA will want to have “reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending recovery now underway The rebound in retail sales volumes so far in Q2 has provided us with some encouragement that consumer spending growth has regained some pace after the weak start to the year. Meanwhile, wage growth... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) Households are back to their free spending ways, with the strength of May’s retail sales figures implying that second-quarter real consumption growth (and GDP growth for that matter) will now be more... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak start to Q2 Today’s mining figures confirmed that, following a disappointing Q1, South Africa’s economy weakened even more at the start of the Q2. We still think that the economy will strengthen this year. 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why have corporate profits soared? Corporate profits have more than doubled since Prime Minister Abe returned to power. We think that this reflects a reduction in cross-shareholdings since the late 1990s and improvements in corporate... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) Today’s activity data were a mixed bag as industrial production and real estate activity picked up but retail sales and investment spending cooled last month. We think that activity will slow over the... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Assessing the impact of an “all-out” trade war Our best guess is that even if all the protectionist threats made to date were carried out, they would subtract a lot less than half a percent from global GDP. A free-for-all, in which all governments... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s fall in euro-zone industrial production adds to the evidence that the economy has not rebounded strongly since Q1’s slowdown. Nevertheless, with more timely survey measures of activity still... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Is a financial crisis looming? The most likely consequence of the rapid build-up of household debt over the past decade is a number of years of softer GDP growth and lower interest rates than widely expected. But the risk of a more... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) While the modest rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in June is encouraging, we remain cautious about the outlook for consumption growth. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will surging interest rates sink the US economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Despite the recent sell-off in peripheral European bond markets, we still expect the Fed to raise rates again tomorrow and the ECB to announce at its meeting on Thursday its plans to bring its asset... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will surging interest rates sink the economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Consumer price inflation rose to a four-month high in May and, with core inflation in particular set to remain elevated, we think the RBI will follow up last week’s hike in the repo rate with further... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
