Japan Economics Update What do higher energy prices mean for Japan? The recent jump in crude oil prices will give a significant lift to inflation in Japan, taking it somewhat closer to the Bank of Japan’s target, but only for a short while. For a large net energy... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household spending growth likely to rebound in Q2 The slowdown in advanced economies in Q1 was partly a result of weak consumption growth. But we think that household spending will recover in Q2 and grow at a decent pace during the rest of 2018. 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising rates a headwind for the economy The continued surge in market interest rates will become an increasing headwind for the economy, especially next year when the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Admittedly, the level of interest rates... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Rebound in growth to lead to higher interest rates The bout of softer-than-expected inflation and activity data which caused the MPC to step back from hiking Bank Rate in May is certainly reason for caution. But like the MPC, we think that temporary... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Markets tumble with Iran’s nuclear deal on the brink Financial markets in the Middle East & North Africa have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world over the past week following President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) While today’s figures show that the new government inherits an economy in decent health, the scrapping of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and campaign pledges to review Chinese investment have made... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) We already know that business investment was little changed last quarter. As such, we wouldn’t read too much into the fall in machinery orders in March. The bigger picture is that firms are facing... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.7% m/m rise in industrial production in April was driven by a strong gain in manufacturing output and provides more evidence that activity is expanding at a faster pace in the second quarter. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: GST leaves behind a large gap to fill The decision today by the new Malaysian government to effectively abolish the Goods and Service Tax (GST) from the start of next month should provide a fiscal boost to the economy, but it will leave... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2018) Russian GDP expanded by a weaker-than-expected 1.3% y/y in Q1, but the data do at least confirm that the economy is recovering from its slowdown in late 2017. And we think growth will strengthen by... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The 1.4% m/m rise in manufacturing sales values in March, which followed an upwardly revised 2.7% m/m gain in February (previously 1.9%) was principally due to rising prices. In volume terms... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Q1 weakness a prelude to slower growth this year We wouldn’t read too much into the contraction in GDP last quarter. After all, trend growth in Japan is low and the drop in output followed eight consecutive quarters of expansion, the longest stretch... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth stalls in Q1, will pick up thereafter Today’s retail figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy faltered at the start of 2018, with GDP actually contracting in Q1. We still think that growth will return Q2 and remain strong... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) With wage growth stuck in the mud at 2.1% in the first quarter and likely to stay there or thereabouts for a while yet, the prospect of an interest rate rise next year has diminished further. It also... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) The longest period of uninterrupted expansion since the late 1980s came to an end last quarter and we think that the economy won’t expand as much this year as it did in 2017. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q1) Colombian GDP growth picked up from 1.8% y/y in Q4 to 2.2% y/y in Q1, and we think the recovery will strengthen by more than the consensus expects this year. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
