Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why the EM growth cycle is close to peaking The consensus on growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) remains too rosy; by contrast we think that the current cycle is now close to peaking. While we do not expect EM growth to collapse, we do think it... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey suggests that the growth of manufacturing output may have slowed a bit at the start of the year. But the big picture remains that the sector is still performing... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s small fall in German investor sentiment was unsurprising against a backdrop of falling equity prices and a strong euro. The fact that the majority of investors expect economic conditions to... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Is Japan overheating? Japan’s economy recorded an eighth consecutive quarter of growth in Q4, the longest uninterrupted run of expansion since the late 1980s. Unemployment is very low, inflation has started to pick up... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) Russian activity data for January show that, having slowed over the second half of last year, the economy has now turned the corner. It looks like growth picked up to about 1.3% y/y last month from 1... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Thailand’s economy lost some momentum in Q4 but still expanded at the fastest pace since 2012 last year. We expect growth to remain robust over the coming quarters, supported by accommodative fiscal... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) Trade values were distorted in January by seasonal swings ahead of the Lunar New Year. The bigger picture is that external demand remains robust. 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The strong rise in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in February may be the first sign of the boost to consumers from lower taxes and suggests that, even if consumption growth slows... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation to remain muted Global bond markets have been shaken by the recent run of stronger wage and price inflation figures in the US. Although we have long expected that a rebound in core inflation south of the border would... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Sluggish start to the year for retailers It is always a challenge to get a proper reading of the underlying strength of consumer spending growth around this time of year, with changing seasonal sales patterns (including the introduction of... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the slowdown in domestic demand be sustained? Data released this week confirmed that the euro-zone economy finished 2017 on a strong footing. But the composition of growth shifted markedly in the second half of last year, with net trade making a... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) With real incomes under pressure from weak nominal pay growth and above-target inflation, it isn’t surprising that high-street spending growth has continued to lose momentum. But the worst of the real... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombian GDP growth slowed from 2.3% y/y in Q3 to a weaker-than-expected 1.6% y/y in Q4, but we still expect the economy to recover over the course of this year. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in January isn't a huge surprise following the rapid growth at the end of last year. Along with the weaker retail sales data released yesterday, however... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US inflation not (yet) a big threat to EM economies Concerns about rising inflation pressures in the US have sent shockwaves through EM financial markets over the past week or so, but the economic fallout is likely to be limited. A sharp and sustained... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: First thoughts on Zuma’s resignation The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read