Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s hawkishness already looks premature The Bank of Canada issued a relatively hawkish policy statement on Wednesday this week, which increased speculation that another interest rate hike was coming, possibly as soon as July. But within... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spain can cope without Rajoy but Italian politics still a worry In any other week, the imposition of tariffs on the EU by the US would have taken centre stage. But amid the political and market turmoil in Italy and the downfall of Spain’s government, this was no... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May.) Today’s manufacturing PMI – which fell to 49.8 – provides yet more evidence that South Africa’s economy struggled in early 2018. We retain the view that growth will pick up later this year. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for growth? GDP growth across Emerging Asia edged up slightly in the first quarter of the year, and should continue to hold up relatively well in the near term, despite the drag from higher oil prices and weaker... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the Swiss and Norwegian economies continued to perform well in Q2 after decent starts to the year. Sweden’s PMI was yet again quite weak, but other survey... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) & Czech GDP (Q1) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs fell in most of Emerging Europe, reinforcing our view that regional growth has peaked. The PMI plunged to a nine-year low in Turkey, which is the first sign that the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in May. But the reading is still decent, and prospects for local manufacturers look relatively bright over the near term. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Most of Emerging Asia’s PMIs picked up in May. However, the manufacturing sector in Taiwan, one of the economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, appears to be losing momentum. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) The latest PMIs suggest that China continued to sustain rapid growth last month. But the surveys don’t tell the full story and have mostly defied a slowdown in the hard data during the past year. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much support will non-mining investment provide? While the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia is fairly encouraging, we aren’t expecting an appreciable pick-up in total private investment growth. That’s largely because the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Spending (Q1) Today’s capital spending confirmed that investment was sluggish last quarter and suggest that we won’t see major revisions in the second estimate of Q1 GDP. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2018) The unexpectedly weak 1.3% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP means that a July rate hike by the Bank of Canada suddenly looks a lot less of a done deal than it did with the release of the more... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) Indian GDP growth surged to a two-year high in Q1. The data are much-maligned, but the broad trajectory of a pick-up in growth seems reasonable, and we think that growth will remain strong over the... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Danish GDP (Q1) The Swiss economy’s decent start to 2018 was partly down to a boost from international sports events but there are also signs of strengthening domestic demand. Nonetheless, with inflation still very... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q1) While the headline figures in the first-quarter private capital expenditure survey were only a little weaker than most had anticipated, the news on non-mining investment was particularly disappointing... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (May) Today’s strong set of official PMIs tell a reassuring story about current growth momentum and suggest that April’s recovery may have extended into May. However, we will have to wait for more reliable... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
