Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Qatar: A year on from the blockade One year after the diplomatic crisis surrounding Qatar first erupted, the economy appears to have weathered the storm. An escalation of the crisis remains the key threat to the economic outlook, but... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) After having been a big factor behind the strong rise in GDP in the first quarter, April’s international trade data suggest that net exports won’t be as supportive in the second quarter. So just one... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) Australia stands out as one of the few advanced economies that strengthened at the start of the year. But with households struggling even before the Royal Commission has prompted tighter credit... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy resilient to renewed trade tensions The risk of a global trade war has risen in the past few weeks. President Trump has gone ahead with plans to levy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which is likely to provoke retaliation. In... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Signs of a consumer revival The news on the economy has improved considerably over the past few weeks. Indeed, May’s PMI surveys suggest that GDP growth could accelerate to 0.4% or so this quarter, up from 0.1% in Q1. Meanwhile... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: Net trade increasingly dragging on growth GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central Europe showed that, while domestic demand remained strong in Q1, net trade dragged on growth across the region. With capacity constraints starting to bite... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The larger-than-expected 0.8% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production is encouraging given the sector’s weak showing in Q1. But the trucker’s strike that paralysed the country for nine days last... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ‘Ramaphoria’ stalls in Q1 South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q1, underlining the scale of the task facing President Ramaphosa. Growth will pick up later this year, but will remain weak by historical standards. 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy returned to growth in Q1 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy emerged from recession in Q1. More timely data indicate that a raft of public sector bonuses is finally providing some support to the non-oil sector. 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Apr.) April’s rise in private sector production suggests that Sweden’s economy got off to a decent start to Q2. While the construction sector is likely to remain weak, overall we expect the economy to... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) Last month’s PMI data for the Gulf suggest that after a soft start to the year, growth in the non-oil sector is picking up. Egypt’s PMI suggests that pipeline price pressures are subdued, supporting... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending (Apr.) While household spending was weak in April, the jump in retail sales suggests that private consumption returned to growth this quarter. 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Only a mild rebound in 2018 Despite higher oil prices, Angola’s economy will grow by just 1.5% this year, less than consensus expectations. Conditions will remain weak in 2019, though reforms could provide a boost further out. 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr.) After stalling in March, the stronger than anticipated rise in retail sales in April was welcome news. Nevertheless, with household budgets still under pressure, we continue to expect consumption... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to regional divergences The aggregate EM manufacturing PMI nudged down in May, but the more interesting story lies in the regional divergences, with readings in Latin America and Emerging Europe dropping but those in Asia... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (May) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI, which has fallen significantly since the start of the year, slipped again in May. That said, it is still consistent with world GDP growth rebounding in the second... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
