Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) The surge in machinery orders in April is yet another sign that the drop in Q1 GDP was just a blip. The bigger picture is that firms are facing severe capacity constraints so investment spending... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investment boom already beginning to fade The strength of business investment has been one of the economy’s few bright spots over the past couple of quarters, but that surge in capex has done little to boost the economy’s still mediocre... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger data keeps August hike on the cards Economic growth of 0.4% or so in Q2 – as suggested by the latest business surveys – would normally be pretty respectable. But coming after Q1’s snow-related slowdown, it looks a little soft. What’s... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Icelandic GDP (Q1) The Icelandic economy had a weak start to the year, as net trade and investment weighed on growth and offset the continued strength of private consumption. But the surveys suggest that the outlook... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household balance sheets still in decent shape Although there are early signs that the finances of US households are coming under a bit of pressure as interest rates rise, the near-term outlook for household consumption in advanced economies... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment growth will remain robust After a strong Q1, Polish fixed investment growth will stay robust over the duration of 2018. However, this won’t be enough to prevent headline GDP growth from slowing. 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Balance sheet weaknesses ebbing After a difficult period, recent data show that Ghana’s balance sheet problems are now behind us. While problems in the banking sector have emerged, policymakers are taking the right steps to tackle... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s data for industrial production in Germany and France add to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to rebound strongly after Q1’s slowdown. 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How will the Trump-Kim summit impact South Korea? Next week’s summit between Donald Trump and North Korean leader, Kim Jung Un, is a big deal politically, but even if a major breakthrough is announced, the impact on South Korea’s financial markets... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) Import growth was surprisingly strong last month. This probably reflects a continued recovery in industrial activity following the easing of winter pollution controls and is unlikely to be sustained... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Relying again on resources In order to grow by 3.1% in the year to the first quarter, the Australian economy returned to the old habit of relying on resources. This won’t be possible in the second quarter nor in the coming... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Revised) Revised data show that Japan’s economy expanded a little faster in recent quarters than initially reported. But the economy is running into capacity constraints and we expect growth to slow this year. 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing slump and higher rates weighing on growth We expect economic growth to slow to 1.7% this year and only 1.3% in 2019, as the housing downturn continues to weigh on consumption and residential investment. That weakness will eventually force the... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Peripheral bond yields rise amid political turmoil Politics have captured the limelight over the past month. Bond yields in Italy have risen sharply over the past few weeks as concerns about debt sustainability and the new government’s commitment to... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing production South Africa’s manufacturing sector strengthened in April, but a key portion of the industry continued to contract. In q/q terms, growth was actually weaker than in Q1. 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, Breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone Q1 GDP confirmed that the slowdown in growth was caused by net trade. While the latest evidence suggests that growth is unlikely to pick up much in Q2, it should still... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
