China Chart Pack Capital flows balanced despite rise in trade tensions Against a backdrop of rising trade tensions with the US and jitters about the wider outlook for emerging economies, capital flows in and out of China have been broadly balanced. Global investors still... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) GDP growth is by no means falling off a cliff, but the end of the migration and housing booms have already caused a marked slowdown and they probably mean growth will ease to just 2.0% next year... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal essentially a restatement of old fudges The Eurogroup seems set to agree the payment of Greece’s final loan tranche tomorrow and to offer a cash buffer to help it through the early months after it exits its bailout in August. But mooted... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) The strength of May’s Russian activity data, coupled with upwards revisions to the industrial output figures, suggests that GDP growth picked up to more than 2% y/y, compared with the latest estimate... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a US-China trade war mean for Asia? Trade tensions between the US and China have been ratcheted up another notch after US President Donald Trump yesterday threatened to impose a 10% tariff on a further US$200bn of Chinese imports... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to make of the surge in second-hand sales? Despite rapid growth, sales of second-hand goods remain too low to constitute a major threat to retailers. Their rising popularity reflects the increased convenience of electronic platforms rather... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q1) Today’s GDP figures show that Sri Lanka’s economy made a weak start to 2018. While growth should pick up over the coming quarters, the recovery is likely to be weak by past standards. 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Turkey forecasts We have warned about the risk of a sharp slowdown in Turkey for some time and this now seems to be materialising. The economy is likely to experience a quarter or two of negative growth this year. A... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (May) Even though today’s trade data show a jump in imports in May, we still think that net trade supported GDP growth in the current quarter. 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The strong survey evidence suggests that the drop in manufacturing output in May was a blip, but the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, if reciprocated, could weigh on the factory sector later this... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand: Demographics and politics to drag on prospects Thailand’s working age population is forecast to start shrinking from next year, presenting a headwind to the country’s economic prospects. With productivity growth set to remain weak, economic growth... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still holding fast to ultra-loose policy The Bank of Japan has recently been expressing greater concern about the impact of ultra-loose monetary policy on financial stability. But Governor Kuroda today insisted that the key focus of policy... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack UAE the latest to loosen fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs that governments across the Gulf are responding to higher oil prices by ramping up spending. Both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest emirates that make up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s requirements for a rate rise Governor Lowe outlined in a speech earlier this week that before interest rates are raised from their record low of 1.5% the RBA will want to have “reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending recovery now underway The rebound in retail sales volumes so far in Q2 has provided us with some encouragement that consumer spending growth has regained some pace after the weak start to the year. Meanwhile, wage growth... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) Households are back to their free spending ways, with the strength of May’s retail sales figures implying that second-quarter real consumption growth (and GDP growth for that matter) will now be more... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
