Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Jun.) & Swedish Production (May) June’s rise in Swiss inflation was driven by faster imported inflation, which we doubt will last. Domestic price pressures remain subdued, so we expect the SNB to leave interest rates unchanged until... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Petrol prices eat into tax and minimum wage windfall A large chunk of the boost to consumption from the income tax cuts and the rise in the minimum wage, both of which came into effect on 1st July, is being offset by the leap in petrol prices. Moreover... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The 10.9% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in May suggests that the truck drivers’ strike at the end of that month may have knocked about 0.4-0.6%-pts off q/q GDP growth in the second... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jun.) June’s Markit/CIPS services survey provided further signs that the economy has rebounded after the weak start to the year and keeps the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on track to raise interest rates... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: The Ramaphosa slump After contracting in Q1, the latest figures suggest that South Africa’s economy remained very weak in Q2. As a result, we’ve cut our 2018 GDP estimate from 2.0% y/y to a below-consensus 1.3%. 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (May) It looks as though a rebound in consumption growth will broadly offset a weakening in the external sector in the second quarter to keep the Australian economy cruising along nicely in the second... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French consumer gloom set to lift The deterioration in French consumer morale suggests that household spending growth will remain fairly subdued in the next couple of quarters. But we doubt that this will last. The bright outlook for... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) May’s euro-zone retail sales data were a little weaker than expected, but still imply that the consumer sector fared better in Q2 than in Q1. And looking ahead, we think that household spending will... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) Last month’s PMI data for the Gulf provide further evidence that growth in non-oil sectors is strengthening, supported by higher oil prices and recent fiscal stimulus measures. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest most EMs weathering market turmoil The small rise in the emerging market manufacturing PMI last month provides an early sign that the turbulence in financial markets has not (yet) had much impact on aggregate economic activity. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Surveys point to rebound in Q2, despite trade jitters Markit’s global manufacturing PMI slipped at the end of Q2 but remains consistent with a rebound in world GDP growth. We think that the latter picked up to over 3½% annualised last quarter. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The increase in the ISM manufacturing index in June is a clear sign that, for now at least, the strength of the domestic economy is more than offsetting any increased uncertainty on trade policy... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May), Manuf. PMI (Jun.) May’s unemployment data revealed that the steady recovery in the euro-zone labour market had continued despite signs of a slowdown in the wider economy. But with wage growth remaining subdued, the ECB... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) June’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector has rebounded from a disappointing Q1. And the forward-looking balances provided some encouragement that the outlook for the sector has improved. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi emerges from recession, recovery to gather pace Saudi Arabia’s economy pulled out of recession in Q1 and we expect the recovery to gain momentum over the coming quarters, supported by fiscal stimulus and a jump in oil output. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for June provides further evidence that the slump in the economy seen in Q1 was followed by further weakness in Q2. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
