UK Markets Outlook Rebound in growth to lead to higher interest rates The bout of softer-than-expected inflation and activity data which caused the MPC to step back from hiking Bank Rate in May is certainly reason for caution. But like the MPC, we think that temporary... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Markets tumble with Iran’s nuclear deal on the brink Financial markets in the Middle East & North Africa have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world over the past week following President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) While today’s figures show that the new government inherits an economy in decent health, the scrapping of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and campaign pledges to review Chinese investment have made... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) We already know that business investment was little changed last quarter. As such, we wouldn’t read too much into the fall in machinery orders in March. The bigger picture is that firms are facing... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.7% m/m rise in industrial production in April was driven by a strong gain in manufacturing output and provides more evidence that activity is expanding at a faster pace in the second quarter. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: GST leaves behind a large gap to fill The decision today by the new Malaysian government to effectively abolish the Goods and Service Tax (GST) from the start of next month should provide a fiscal boost to the economy, but it will leave... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2018) Russian GDP expanded by a weaker-than-expected 1.3% y/y in Q1, but the data do at least confirm that the economy is recovering from its slowdown in late 2017. And we think growth will strengthen by... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The 1.4% m/m rise in manufacturing sales values in March, which followed an upwardly revised 2.7% m/m gain in February (previously 1.9%) was principally due to rising prices. In volume terms... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Q1 weakness a prelude to slower growth this year We wouldn’t read too much into the contraction in GDP last quarter. After all, trend growth in Japan is low and the drop in output followed eight consecutive quarters of expansion, the longest stretch... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth stalls in Q1, will pick up thereafter Today’s retail figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy faltered at the start of 2018, with GDP actually contracting in Q1. We still think that growth will return Q2 and remain strong... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) With wage growth stuck in the mud at 2.1% in the first quarter and likely to stay there or thereabouts for a while yet, the prospect of an interest rate rise next year has diminished further. It also... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) The longest period of uninterrupted expansion since the late 1980s came to an end last quarter and we think that the economy won’t expand as much this year as it did in 2017. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q1) Colombian GDP growth picked up from 1.8% y/y in Q4 to 2.2% y/y in Q1, and we think the recovery will strengthen by more than the consensus expects this year. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world now less sensitive to oil prices? Oil price movements have big effects on individual economies, companies and assets. But we suspect that their impact on aggregate global demand is smaller now than it was a decade or two ago. This is... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Although headline retail sales rose at a weaker pace in April, growth in underlying sales remained strong and past months’ gains were revised higher, which supports our view that the weakness in first... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: lessons from 2001/02 There are some similarities between Argentina’s current crisis and 2001/02 crisis. But there are also critical differences, not least the fact that the peso is now free-floating and the authorities... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read