Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) We suspect that the continued stagnation in real wages in the second quarter will contribute to an easing in consumption growth this year, while the absence of a meaningful rise in nominal wage growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the warm weather spur spending? This summer has been the warmest in more than a decade, prompting speculation that the hot weather might have given an extra boost to consumer spending. In general, though, there is very little... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), IP (Jun.) & German ZEW (Aug.) The upward revision to euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 will make policymakers at the ECB more confident that they are right to be winding down their asset purchases. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Dutch GDP (Q2) The stronger-than-expected expansions in Germany and the Netherlands in Q2 provide some hope that the euro-zone economy may have grown more strongly in Q2 than initially estimated. This should... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) The activity and spending data for July all came in below consensus expectations despite surprisingly strong external demand. This highlights the continued strong headwinds to domestic demand from... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s PMI data for the Gulf provide further evidence that higher oil prices and recent fiscal measures are supporting robust growth in the non-oil sector. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey suggests... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 0.1% is the new 0% The Bank of Japan’s decision to allow JGB yields to deviate by 0.2 percentage points rather than 0.1 percentage points from its 0% target suggests that long-term bond yields will settle at a slightly... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Putting the housing downturn into context The fall in house prices seen so far is small by the standards of the average Australian downturn. But a further tightening in credit criteria may contribute to it morphing into the deepest and... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a worry is Turkey? The plunge in the lira which began in May now looks certain to push the Turkish economy into recession and it may well trigger a banking crisis. This would be another blow for EMs as an asset class... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB won’t welcome franc’s safe haven boost The renewed appreciation of the Swiss franc this week as investors sought out safe haven assets will not have been welcomed by the SNB. But the franc is still weaker than it has been over the past few... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Worries over Turkey and Italy hit European markets While worries about the exposure of euro-zone lenders to Turkey weighed on the euro and European banking stocks on Friday, the economic spillovers to the region should be fairly modest. Meanwhile... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy resilient, but “no-deal” Brexit fears grow Our central scenario envisages a smooth departure from the EU on 29th March 2019. But that outcome is far from certain. And although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no deal... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Saudi storm won’t cause economic damage The sudden escalation in political tensions between Canada and Saudi Arabia this week seems alarming, but investors are right not to fret about the consequences. After all, Canada sends just 0.2% of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected Mexican industrial production figure for June was driven in part by a surge in utilities output, which is unlikely to be sustained. Even so, we still think that industrial... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2018) The pick-up in Russian GDP growth, to 1.8% y/y in Q2, was a bit weaker than we had expected and there is now a downside risk to our growth forecast of 2.3% for the year as a whole. Even so, we think... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
