Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) Today’s figures show that Malaysia’s growth slowed sharply in Q2, partly reflecting the political transition following the May election. While consumer spending should continue to be buoyed by the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Modicare unlikely to have significant impact Prime Minister Modi confirmed this week that his nationwide healthcare insurance scheme will be rolled out in September. Better healthcare provision could bring several benefits, from both an economic... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth remained subdued in Q2 The stronger-than-expected 0.7% monthly increase in retail sales volumes in July took the annual growth rate up from 2.9% to 3.5% and suggests that some recovery in consumer spending growth is in the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bad loans on the rise Commercial banks’ non-performing loans (NPL) rose by RMB183bn in Q2, the biggest increase in over a decade. On paper, bad loans now make up just under 2% of all loans, the highest ratio since the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising inflation means Fed unlikely to abandon plans With inflation trending higher and economic growth receiving a boost from this year’s fiscal stimulus, it is unlikely that the destabilising declines in a few emerging market currencies will force the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) June’s gain in sales was flattered by the energy sector, but the key take away is that another rise in unfilled orders bodes well for growth in the third quarter and suggests inflationary pressures... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after an EM currency crisis? Both Turkey and Argentina have now suffered currency crises this year. In previous EM currency crises, economies experienced a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, averaging 5-6%-pts, and a rise in inflation... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected increase in retail sales volumes in July suggests that some recovery in consumer spending growth is in the pipeline. 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia: what to make of Mahathir’s first 100 days Following his shock election victory at the start of May, 93-year-old Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has wasted no time in carrying out his main campaign promises. With his first 100 days in office... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jul.) The deterioration in the trade balance in July reflects a combination of rising import volumes and higher energy prices. We expect crude oil prices to fall over the coming months so the trade balance... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2018) Colombian GDP growth increased from 2.2% y/y in Q1 to 2.8% y/y in Q2, and we think the recovery will strengthen by more than the consensus expects over the coming quarters. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The more modest 0.3% increase in manufacturing output in July adds to the evidence that growth in the manufacturing sector has peaked. Even if a major escalation of tariff barriers is avoided, the... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) & Productivity (Q2) Despite the continued strength of retail sales in July, real consumption growth still looks set for a gradual slowdown in the third quarter, as the boost from the recent tax cuts starts to fade. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy on the edge of recession in Q2 Q2 activity data were an improvement on Q1, when the economy contracted sharply. But a weak performance from key sectors has still dealt a blow to hopes that President Ramaphosa would boost growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening to come in Indonesia Today’s rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) comes against a backdrop of continued weak economic growth and subdued inflation, and demonstrates that BI’s main focus remains supporting the currency. With... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
