Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Activity data suggest weak growth in Q2 GDP figures due next week will probably show that growth in Nigeria remained weak in Q2. We think that growth was probably about 2% y/y, essentially in line with the previous two quarters. 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycle continues EM central banks continued to tighten monetary policy in August. Policymakers in Argentina and Indonesia raised interest rates to support their currencies amid fears of contagion from the crisis in... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s household debt overhang a constraint on growth Household debt in Korea has surged in recent years, raising fears of a messy unwinding. But while a financial crisis is unlikely to materialise, the debt overhang will act as a constraint on growth. A... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The impact on Japan of a trade war Even if it escalates, the trade dispute between the US and China shouldn’t do significant damage to Japan’s economy. US tariffs on Japanese vehicles would be a greater concern, while a blanket US... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The surge in Chilean GDP growth to 5.3% y/y in Q2 was driven mainly by a pick-up in domestic demand, and is likely to mark the peak in the cycle. Growth is likely to soften gradually from here. And... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf boosted by higher oil output Oil production figures for July, the first that should capture the impact of revisions to the OPEC deal in June, support our view that growth in the Gulf will strengthen in the coming quarters. Oil... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Equities continue to scale new highs Indian equities have continued to surge in August, with the benchmark Sensex stock index rising to a fresh record high of over 38,000 today. The recent strong performance in the Sensex compared to... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Thailand cooled slightly in Q2, after expanding at its fastest pace in five years in Q1. We expect growth to slow gradually over the coming quarters, due mainly to weaker export demand. 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Drought won’t dent the economy much The recent drought is hurting many farmers, their communities and the agricultural sector. But it is unlikely to put a big dent in the output of the whole economy or significantly raise CPI inflation. 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we care about consumer confidence? Surveys of consumer confidence have been unusually strong in the past two years, but their usefulness as a guide to spending has deteriorated. What’s more, experience shows that both confidence and... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Third quarter shaping up better than expected We learned this week that much of the strength of consumption growth in the second quarter was sustained in July, suggesting that third quarter GDP growth will be stronger than we had anticipated. The... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Contagion from Italy likely to remain limited The sell-off in Italian bonds continued this week, and although we think that Italian yields have further to rise, we suspect that contagion will remain limited. Meanwhile, data released this week for... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity for July suggest that the economy continued to grow at a steady pace between Q2 and the start of Q3. Our Tracker is consistent with GDP growth of about 2.5% y/y and, while the Tracker... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Autumn Brexit deal less likely We have reassessed our view on the likely timing of a Brexit deal. Our working assumption is now that a deal is reached at the eleventh hour in Q1 2019, rather than in the autumn. However, we doubt... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Property prices defy curbs, PBOC props up the RMB One bright spot in the generally downbeat economic data released this week was a further acceleration in property sales and prices last month. The pick-up was driven by China’s smaller cities, where... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira rebounds, Putin policy wobbles The Turkish lira has recovered lost ground since Monday, although policymakers have only done the bare minimum in response to the crisis. There have been some positive noises on fiscal policy, yet... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
