UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The strong rebound in retail sales in April provides encouragement that consumer spending growth has regained some pace after the weather-related weakness in Q1. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q1, Breakdown) Q1’s 0.3% rise in German GDP marked a weak start to the year. But temporary factors were partly to blame and the strength of investment in particular is an encouraging sign that the upturn still has... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1 Revised) The revised estimate of Singapore’s Q1 GDP showed that the economy started 2018 on a better note than previously thought. However, a gradual slowdown in global growth and a tightening of domestic... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Royal Commission presents a risk to growth While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it seems likely that the Royal Commission into misconduct in the financial sector will lead to a tightening in credit conditions in Australia. A notable... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (May) Preliminary business surveys for May, published by Markit today, suggest that the moderate slowdown in economic growth may have continued in the second quarter, at least in the euro-zone and Japan. 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Swedish wage growth ever pick up? We expect wage growth in Sweden to pick up to around 3% by the end of the year. This should be enough for the Riksbank to start raising interest rates in December. 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: near-term outlook is bright Egypt’s economy has weathered the fallout from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016 and, as fiscal consolidation slows and inflation and interest rates drop back, growth should remain robust over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP still in strong position despite Karnataka setback The BJP’s failure to form a coalition despite winning by far the most seats in the Karnataka state election is a setback for the ruling national party, with the main opposition Congress and the local... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy accelerates as pollution crackdown ends Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth accelerated in April to a seven-month high as the government’s winter pollution crackdown ended. We think this mini rebound has now run its... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the Bank of Japan finally winning? On some measures, Japan has been the strongest performing large developed economy over recent years. Growth has been unusually fast, unemployment is at historic lows and wage growth at two-decade... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) Even though the manufacturing PMI fell to a fresh low in May, we still think that the economy returned to growth this quarter. Meanwhile, the recent strength in crude oil prices is boosting price... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers hold off, will cut later this year A surprisingly hawkish MPC statement suggest that Nigerian policymakers (who held their key rate at 14.00% today) will keep rates on hold for most of this year. But they will still probably cut rates... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The latest Russian activity figures suggest that GDP growth picked up to about 1.5% y/y at the start of Q2. These data also provide early evidence that the tightening of US sanctions and the fall in... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the sterling boost over? While the beneficial effects on exports of the pound’s depreciation may now be fading somewhat, it is too early to conclude that the sterling boost to growth is over. 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The implications of Switzerland’s “Vollgeld” referendum A “yes” vote in Switzerland’s sovereign money referendum next month would completely overturn the current monetary system. It would constrain the Swiss National Bank’s approach to monetary policy... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) Despite a bounce back in March, our New Zealand Activity Proxy is still pointing to a modest easing in GDP growth over the first quarter as a whole. And we expect growth will continue to struggle this... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read