US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) Despite the decline in headline orders, the July durable goods data suggest that business equipment investment growth is set to rebound in the third quarter. That provides further reason to think that... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT signals rate hike, Malaysia pushes back on BRI Stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures this week and the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) increasingly hawkish rhetoric suggest a 25bp rate hike is likely at its next meeting on 19 th September. However, with... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey in crisis Turkey plunged into a full-blown currency crisis this month following the imposition of US sanctions and an absence of (or refusal to pursue) an orthodox policy response. Inflation, which was already... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the dollar pondering a Labor government? This week’s political chaos has increased the downside risks to the Australian dollar. Although the markets welcomed the news that Scott Morrison has replaced Malcolm Turnbull as Australia’s Prime... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How does the latest EM sell-off stack up? Asset prices in Turkey and Argentina have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, while the moves in other countries’ markets look similar to previous EM sell-offs over the past decade. It’s still very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash manufacturing PMIs extend downward trend Preliminary business surveys for August point to a further loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector, but the composite surveys suggest that GDP growth is holding up reasonably well. Meanwhile... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further slowdown ahead Growth only slowed a touch in Emerging Asia last quarter, but weakening export demand and tighter monetary policy mean that the region’s economies are likely to cool further over the next year or so. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports still lagging behind global demand The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $0.6bn in June, thanks to a 4.1% monthly rise in exports and a small fall in imports. But both moves were largely due to big swings in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO on hold, Bahrain debt fears ease Reports this week suggest that Saudi policymakers may be close to shelving the Aramco IPO, which would reinforce concerns that the country’s commitment to the Vision 2030 reforms is waning. Elsewhere... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s small increase in the euro-zone PMI suggests that the region’s economy is continuing to perform well in Q3, which will reassure the ECB that it is right to be normalising monetary policy very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP & Switzerland IP (Q2) The slowdown in Norway’s housing market is weighing on the economy. But other sectors are performing much better, so this won’t be enough to stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates next month... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Even though the manufacturing PMI still points to robust gains in industrial production, there are signs that the prospect of a global trade war is weighing on external demand. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) While retail sales values and volumes both fell in June, over the second quarter as a whole growth rebounded. However, the slowdown in housing market activity and rising interest rates will limit... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The strong batch of Polish activity data for July suggests that the economy continued to grow at around 5% y/y at the start of Q3. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth weakens Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth slowed in July to the weakest pace in five months. We think the slowdown has further to run. The US-China trade conflict will be a drag on... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Economy can cope with surge in political uncertainty As politicians don’t influence the economy by as much as they’d like to believe, the growing uncertainty over the Prime Minister’s position is unlikely to significantly dent activity. That said... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
