Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth continues to weaken The further fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in August adds to the signs that EM growth lost momentum in Q3. The surveys also show that price pressures are building in parts of the emerging world. 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The implications of Catalan autonomy Greater autonomy for Catalonia would probably have a detrimental impact on Spain’s public finances. But it would reduce calls for secession, and therefore limit the risk of a renewed and potentially... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The small fall in Brazilian industrial production in July, of 0.2% m/m, provides further evidence that the economy’s recovery from the truck drivers’ strike in May has been soft. However, leading... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy formally entered recession in Q2 driven by another poor performance from the agricultural sector. We expect the economy to embark on a recovery over the rest of this year, but a... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s PMIs for the Gulf economies suggest that fiscal stimulus has continued to support a recovery in Saudi Arabia, but weaker external demand is weighing on growth in the UAE. Meanwhile, Egypt’s... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The collapse in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August may partly reflect a deterioration in sentiment related to the turmoil in EM financial markets last month. Even so, the data provides an... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The fall in the headline manufacturing PMI, from a downwardly-revised 53.8 in July to 52.8 in August, leaves the survey pointing to little improvement in the manufacturing sector’s fortunes. Indeed... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped in August, suggesting that growth in the sector has lost a bit of momentum in Q3 after a very strong Q2. 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The August PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest that the region’s manufacturing sectors remained lacklustre. Meanwhile, Korean export data suggest export growth in the rest of the region stayed robust last... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The latest survey data suggest that China’s economy continued to come under pressure last month. We expect further weakness ahead despite the shift toward policy easing. 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) It's become more likely that GDP growth in the second quarter was a bit stronger than we have been expecting, but the stagnation in retail sales values in July suggests that consumption may have lost... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) With the full effects of tighter credit conditions and rising mortgage rates yet to be felt, the current housing downturn will probably end up being the longest and deepest in Australia’s modern... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Spending (Q2) Today’s capital spending data suggest that business investment was much stronger last quarter than initially reported. This points to an upward revision to GDP growth in next week’s second estimate. 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong growth, weak inflation Euro-zone data published this week showed a picture of fairly strong growth but continued subdued inflationary pressure. In the coming years, we expect GDP growth to slow, but underlying inflation to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade policy still a clear downside risk President Donald Trump may have reached an agreement to overhaul NAFTA this week but, as his interview with Bloomberg on Thursday highlighted, his protectionist instincts haven’t gone anywhere. They... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) Indian GDP growth beat most expectations in Q2 and is likely to continue expanding rapidly over the coming months, supported by looser fiscal policy ahead of next year’s general election. 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
