Africa Economics Weekly South Africa in recession, Focac summit, Kenya fuel costs Figures released this week showed that South Africa’s economy performed even worse than we’d thought in Q2. Headline growth will probably recover in the second half of the year, but we’ve downgraded... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Surging GDP, stationary RBA The recent stellar performance of the Australian economy hasn’t made it much more likely that the RBA will raise interest rates sooner because it is businesses that are benefiting most not households... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jul.) We wouldn’t read too much into the slowdown in wage growth in July as it was driven by volatile bonus payments. Base pay continues to grow at a healthy pace. We expect wage growth to strengthen a bit... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa & China: Putting the Focac summit in context Attention focused on China-Africa ties this week as leaders from across the continent met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for a major summit. In this Update we attempt to situate the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) The improvement in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q2 should help to ease concerns about the country’s external financing needs and provide some support to the rand. Coming alongside the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumer spending growth to regain momentum While elevated inflation weighed on consumer spending in the first half of 2018, a modest recovery in spending growth is in the pipeline. As the labour market continues to tighten, wage growth will... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) This morning’s GDP data and the timelier surveys show that the Swiss economy is growing at a fairly strong pace. But inflationary pressures remain subdued. As a result, we still think that the SNB... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the EM sell-off The EM sell-off appears to have become more broad-based in the last few days, although there is little evidence that – outside Turkey and Argentina – the market turmoil is resulting in macroeconomic... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property developers are turning more cautious China’s land market has been on a tear during the past couple of years. But with officials now clamping down on the cash handouts to shantytown residents that have been supporting property demand... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: BNM unlikely to change policy With growth easing and inflation very low, Bank Negara Malaysia’s decision to leave its main policy rate on hold at 3.25% today was no surprise. While the risks are skewed towards looser policy, we... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Aug.) The improvement in August’s Markit/CIPS report on services came as a bit of a relief after the recent run of poor data on the economy and suggested that the services sector is holding up better than... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) July’s euro-zone retail sales data imply that the sector had a slow start to Q3, but the timelier indicators are more encouraging. And the message from August’s PMI surveys was positive for the euro... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q2) The surge in GDP growth in the first half of the year meant that the Australian economy notched up 27 years without a recession in style. But with house prices falling, credit conditions tightening... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The surge in the ISM manufacturing index in August to a 14-year high is hard to square with other evidence, which indicates that growth in the factory sector is slowing. The details suggest that... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs slip further Global manufacturing growth continued to lose momentum in August, according to the latest PMIs, though they still point to world GDP growth holding up reasonably well in Q3. 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
