Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Apr.) The lacklustre rise in our NZAP in April suggests that after slowing in the first quarter the economy failed to regain much momentum in the second. We expect growth will continue to slow from here. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU Council to issue warning over slow progress The Government this week managed to avoid giving Parliament the right to direct negotiations were the UK to end up heading towards a “no-deal” Brexit. But next week’s EU Council summit will highlight... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB dovish, Norges Bank hawkish, Sweden ETI strong This week’s quarterly policy statement from the Swiss National Bank strengthened our view that tighter monetary policy in Switzerland is a long way off. By contrast, higher interest rates are imminent... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Advanced economies entering Q3 with momentum Business surveys for June, which were published by Markit today, reinforce our view that GDP growth in advanced economies rebounded in the second quarter. 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Time to worry about a trade war? Trade tensions have escalated faster and further than we had originally anticipated, capped this week by President Trump’s threat to apply a 10% tariff to $200bn of imports from China. We still think... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The unexpectedly weak inflation and retail sales data released today support our view that the Bank of Canada will stand pat at next month’s policy meeting, particularly given the ongoing uncertainty... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s hawkish shift, Turkey goes to the polls The more hawkish communications from Hungary’s MPC this week support our long-held view that ultra-loose monetary policy will be reined in this year. The hawkish shift caused market expectations for... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) June’s rise in the euro-zone PMI provides some reassurance that the softness recorded so far in 2018 is not the start of a sustained downturn, and that the pace of GDP growth will remain fairly... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (June) The manufacturing PMI was little changed in June and still points to robust gains in industrial output. And the recent surge in crude oil prices is boosting price pressures. 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook When will boom turn to bust? Fuelled by the fiscal stimulus, we expect GDP growth to be 2.9% this year but, as the stimulus fades and higher interest rates become a bigger drag on the economy, growth should slow to 2.0% in 2019... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Headwinds building The latest hard activity figures suggest that EM growth held up well going into Q2, but that headwinds to the macroeconomic outlook are starting to build. The most recent trade figure show that EM... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s elections: what’s at stake? This weekend’s elections in Turkey, which will mark a shift to a presidential political system, have put markets on edge amid fears of a further tilt towards unorthodox policy under a (strengthened)... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) The batch of Polish activity data for May suggests that the economy is set to slow from 5.2% y/y in Q1 to around 4% y/y in Q2. 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Capital flows balanced despite rise in trade tensions Against a backdrop of rising trade tensions with the US and jitters about the wider outlook for emerging economies, capital flows in and out of China have been broadly balanced. Global investors still... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) GDP growth is by no means falling off a cliff, but the end of the migration and housing booms have already caused a marked slowdown and they probably mean growth will ease to just 2.0% next year... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal essentially a restatement of old fudges The Eurogroup seems set to agree the payment of Greece’s final loan tranche tomorrow and to offer a cash buffer to help it through the early months after it exits its bailout in August. But mooted... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read