Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing finally running out of steam The sharp fall in the EM manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength of industry may not be sustained in Q3. The declines in the PMIs were broad-based, although they are still relatively high... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tensions ratcheting up, Egypt-IMF, Saudi Q2 data Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are on the brink of boiling over after Israel’s assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week. It remains to be seen what the response... 1st August 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (July 2024) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July raises the risk that GDP growth will lose momentum in the third quarter, and the plunge in the employment index will add to concerns that the... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI jumped in July, suggesting that improving electricity supply conditions and reduced political uncertainty are starting to support activity. While the economy may... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Policy loosening to begin by year-end The upside inflation surprise in June means it is all but guaranteed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Thursday 8th... 1st August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain challenging... 31st July 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s economy lost a bit of steam in June, but it still looks like GDP growth over Q2 as a whole was very strong, with growth tracking at 4.5-5.0% y/y. 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of the rise in business bankruptcies? Business bankruptcies rose further in the first half of 2024, mainly due to higher Chapter 11 filings as firms were forced to restructure their debts. It is typically the change in borrowing costs... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (May.) The larger-than-expected rise in GDP in May suggests that the economy performed a little better than we anticipated last quarter, although the preliminary estimate of only a small rise in June is... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q2, first estimate) Taiwan’s economy almost stalled in the second quarter, with growth coming in well below our expectations. While we think GDP growth will pick up in the second half of the year, we are cutting our full... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Weak demand holding back S. Africa’s economy The fading drag from load-shedding was widely expected to allow a recovery in South Africa’s economy this year, but this hasn’t materialised. We think that weak demand is to blame, itself a symptom of... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 ‘24 Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that that the economy grew by a solid 1.4% q/q in Q2 and, while non-oil activity is likely to slow over the second half of this year, it will be more than... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin... 31st July 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Q2) 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
