UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Despite inflation ticking up in August, prolonging the squeeze on real incomes, retail sales volumes increased. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s driving stronger Saudi capital outflows? Capital outflows from Saudi Arabia have picked up over the past 18 months, but the bulk of this seems to reflect ongoing foreign investments by the sovereign wealth fund. A bigger concern from the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Temporary respite from an easing trend The solid rise in GDP in the second quarter will give the RBNZ more confidence in its view that GDP growth will rise back above 3.0% next year. In contrast, we believe that low confidence, a soft... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity figures for August showed a slump in the agricultural sector, which is likely to cause GDP growth to weaken in Q3. The experience from the past decade is that these... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why rate hikes in Thailand would be a bad idea The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of accompanying statement suggests that rate hikes are in the pipeline. With inflationary pressures very... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone industrial slowdown to weigh on growth Euro-zone industrial production has slowed surprisingly sharply this year as producers have suffered from an investment-led global slowdown and an appreciation of the trade-weighted exchange rate... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) Import volumes seem to have outpaced export volumes yet again in August which supports our view that net trade remained a drag on Q3 GDP growth. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack GDP growth set to slow The Swiss and Nordic economies generally performed well in Q2, but most of the timelier survey indicators point to slower growth to come. Switzerland’s economy expanded very strongly in the first half... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul) The third consecutive rise in Canadian manufacturing sales in July puts the sector on track for a very strong third quarter. Another fall in new orders suggests that growth may be close to a peak, but... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rwanda: Growth will fall short of ambitious targets Rwanda’s investment-focused and state-managed development model is delivering rapid growth and we expect the country to remain one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. However, the government is... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade war set to escalate The US appears to be on the verge of expanding its tariffs to cover a total of $250bn of Chinese goods, the production of which generates 1.3% of China’s GDP. The proposed $200bn tariff list includes... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Stronger dollar will hold back exports The economy remains strong, with the fiscal stimulus still providing a big boost but, looking beyond headline GDP growth, there are signs that rising interest rates and the resurgent dollar are... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) The much stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production for July suggest that the boost to competitiveness from the fall in the lira in May and June has supported the sector. But these predate... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s election dead heat no big deal for Riksbank Political uncertainty following Sweden’s general election last weekend is unlikely to meaningfully alter the Riksbank’s plans to start tightening policy around the turn of the year. Meanwhile, in... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed raising risks of slowdown further ahead The further rise this week in market interest rate expectations for the next 12 months brought them almost in line with our own long-held and once-hawkish projections. But investors are increasingly... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Solid start to Q3, but Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold While Michel Barnier, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, raised hopes that a Brexit deal will be secured soon, we suspect that an agreement is still some way off. This feeds into our forecast that sterling... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
