Latin America Chart Pack Turmoil in Argentina underscores policy challenges The surprise resignation of Argentina’s central bank governor, Luis Caputo, and nationwide strikes – in protest against President Macri’s austerity plan – underscore the difficulty of fixing the... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French 2019 Budget will support domestic demand The draft French Budget for 2019 confirmed that the Government intends to tighten underlying fiscal policy a little. But several of the planned measures should serve to stimulate private spending... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks in tightening mode Central banks in Emerging Europe shifted into tightening mode this month as policymakers in Turkey, Russia and Ukraine hiked interest rates in response to pressure on their currencies. The Czech MPC... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Election campaigning gets underway in Indonesia Campaigning ahead of next April’s presidential election in Indonesia officially got underway at the weekend, with President Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) set to take on former general, Prabowo... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Brexit uncertainty hurting the economy? We estimate that Brexit uncertainty has knocked about 0.5 percentage points off GDP growth in the two years since the referendum through its impact on investment. Provided a deal is struck as we... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s small fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) did little to reverse the previous month’s increase and left the index consistent with strong annual GDP growth of over 2%. 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investors under-pricing NAFTA risks The loonie continued to appreciate against the greenback this week, despite there seemingly being little chance of the US and Canada reaching a NAFTA deal before the month-end deadline. Investors... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs stable at the end of Q3 Preliminary PMIs suggest that GDP was expanding at a steady pace in advanced economies in September. The euro-zone has not recovered from a weak first half of the year, and the US has continued to do... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly PMIs and supportive ECB offer reassurance The latest data add to the evidence that the slowdown in the euro-zone economy this year has not just been down to a series of “one-offs”. We expect growth to slow further over the next couple of... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s stimulus plan: Doing more with less President Ramaphosa’s US$28bn infrastructure fund is mostly made up of already-committed public spending, and the economic effect will be limited. Lower-profile reforms to visa rules, mining... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack The consumer sector gains momentum in Q3 Retail sales volumes rose in August despite the boost to sales from July’s warm weather and the World Cup unwinding. Indeed, while food sales fell in August, this was more than made up for by the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey underwhelms, Russia budget, Hungary rates reaction The New Economy Program presented by Turkey’s finance minister on Thursday included more realistic economic forecasts, but it failed to build on the central bank’s interest rate hike last week and... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The softening of the euro-zone Composite PMI in September adds to evidence that the region’s economy has lost some momentum after 2017’s very strong expansion. But as the index is still consistent... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) Polish activity data for August were strong and suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a rapid 5% y/y in Q3. The risks to our 2018 GDP growth forecast of 4.3% lie to the upside. 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth holding up but outlook still challenging Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows surprisingly rapid growth in August. But with the impact of property controls and slower credit creation yet to be fully felt, growth still faces near-term... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The continued increase in the manufacturing PMI in September suggests that industrial activity should soon start to strengthen again. 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
