India Economics Weekly Shadow banks in the spotlight After spending years in the background amid the well-documented struggles of state-owned banks, India’s “shadow” banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past week following news... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Activity (Aug.) & Tokyo CPI (Sep.) Today’s activity data showed a rebound in August but that won’t prevent a slowdown in GDP growth in Q3. The labour market remains tight and price pressures in the capital have strengthened further. 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How bad is Brazil’s consumer slowdown? The slowdown in Brazilian retail sales growth in the last few months looks alarming, but there are reasons to think that any weakness in overall consumer spending will be more modest. 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Shifting policy mix points to economic slowdown Boosted by the fiscal stimulus, GDP growth is still on track to be a solid 2.8% this year but, as that stimulus fades and the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, we expect growth to slow to 2.2%... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: How a default could unfold Zambia’s debt situation is deteriorating rapidly, and concerns about hidden debts mean that the situation could be much worse than it appears. Given low debt servicing costs, a missed payment is... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households squeezed by rising debt servicing costs Households’ debt service costs rose to 14.2% of incomes in the second quarter, the highest since 2008. The recent rise has been driven entirely by higher interest rates. Moreover, policy rate hikes... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth weakening in Q3 Having picked up last quarter, activity data for July suggest that aggregate EM GDP growth weakened at the start of Q3. More timely survey and hard data for August paint a mixed picture, but overall... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Aug.) The weakness of underlying capital goods shipments and goods exports in August means that, even though inventories will still make a big positive contribution, we now forecast that third-quarter GDP... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Growth stumbles, policymakers turn hawkish Figures released over the past month showed that the South African and Angolan economies both contracted in the first half of the year, with South Africa entering a technical recession in Q2... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) September’s fall in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment adds to the evidence that economic growth is slowing. This slowdown isn’t sharp enough to deter the ECB from ending its asset... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) Our weighted average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) fell to a ten-month low in September, suggesting that GDP growth in the region has continued to slow in... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Survey (Sep.) September’s further rise in the Economic Tendency Indicator suggests that neither uncertainty about the domestic political environment nor worries about rising trade protectionism have damaged the... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy rates set to be hiked again Ever since starting its rate-hiking cycle in June, the RBI made clear that the future path of monetary policy will be determined by incoming data. With GDP growth surging to a two-year high in Q2 and... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy vulnerable to rate hikes Economic growth looks set to remain healthy in the near term, which will prompt the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates twice more. But the Bank is underestimating both the extent to which... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: Fiscal policy needs to tighten The ECB’s loose monetary stance isn’t compatible with Slovakia’s advanced stage of the business cycle and it looks like the government will respond by tightening fiscal policy to prevent the economy... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
