Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates, tightening cycle not over yet The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked interest rates by a further 100bp on Saturday and made clear in its policy statement that tackling the country’s mounting external imbalances remain its priority... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The sharp drop in Turkey’s PMI last month chimes with other very weak survey data and adds to the evidence that the economy has entered a deep recession. Elsewhere, big falls in the PMIs from Central... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) India’s manufacturing PMI rose in September, continuing the recent run of positive economic data. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The September PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost momentum in Q3. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders further supports our view that the recent... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The latest PMI readings suggest that growth slowed last month. The breakdown points toward weaker exports, though it’s too soon to know if this is due to US tariffs or simply the result of cooling... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The deterioration in business conditions in the Q3 Tankan supports our view that GDP growth slowed last quarter. That said, firms remain optimistic about the outlook for capital spending and the... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Auto tariffs a risk as trade talks drag on Comments from US President Donald Trump this week gave little indication that he is about to trigger the six-month NAFTA withdrawal period, but there is a rising risk of the US imposing auto tariffs... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Some improvement in consumers’ finances The latest Quarterly National Accounts showed that real household incomes and savings have recovered a little from their recent weakness. And with a further improvement in prospect, that should put... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour true to form, Brexit drag on investment to continue The Labour Party announced a new policy at their conference this week that would see companies transfer some of their shares to employees. While this policy in isolation might not be too damaging for... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Case for 2018 hikes in Sweden and Iceland building There are still no signs that domestic political uncertainty is weighing on the Swedish economy, so we continue to expect the Riksbank to raise rates in December. Meanwhile, rising inflation... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul) The stronger-than-expected 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in July suggests that annualised growth in the second quarter may turn out to be closer to 2.0% than the 1.5% we had pencilled in. 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish and Russian markets start to settle Turkish financial markets rallied this week amid signs of improving foreign relations and easing strains in the banking sector, but the latest data releases add to the evidence that the economy is... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Quarterly National Accounts (Q2) The GDP figures were pretty disappointing and with plenty of downside risks to the outlook, we doubt the Bank of England will be in any hurry to raise rates again soon. 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Some of the drop in September’s GfK/NOP consumer confidence survey can be put down to worries over Brexit. But provided a deal is stuck, we do not think this marks the start of a lasting trend and... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Sep.) & Danish GDP (Q2, 2nd est.) Despite rebounding in September, the KOF Economic Barometer still suggests that Swiss GDP growth is set to slow over the coming months. And with inflation very weak, we expect the SNB to keep interest... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q3) Vietnam’s economy recorded another quarter of solid growth in the third quarter of the year. But with exports set to weaken and fiscal policy being tightened, we expect growth to slow over the next... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
