Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that spending growth failed to gain pace in Q3, but there are good reasons to think that sales volumes will accelerate as inflation falls in the months... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) Last month’s PMI data paint a mixed picture in the Gulf but we expect growth in non-oil sectors to pick up over the coming months on the back of fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, the survey in Egypt... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of higher oil prices We don’t expect the recent jump in oil prices to be sustained but if we are wrong and prices stay at $85pb, annual export revenues in the Gulf would be $200bn higher than in 2017. Governments would... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still has some slack Russia’s recovery doesn’t appear to have used up the spare capacity in the economy and we estimate that there is an output gap of about 1% of potential GDP. That means there’s scope for GDP to grow... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The surprisingly large 0.3% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in August seems to be due to a temporary halt in production at one of the country’s petroleum refineries, which should have... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further slowdown in EM manufacturing growth The fall in September’s EM manufacturing PMI painted a gloomy picture and adds to the mounting evidence that growth in parts of the emerging world faltered in Q3. What’s more, data at the granular... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Surveys weaken at the end of Q3 The fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in September supports our view that global growth peaked in Q2. We think growth will slow further over the next two years as the US and China lose... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The small decline in the headline ISM manufacturing index last month from a 14-year high in August still leaves it at an unusually high level, but it is difficult to square with the slowdown in global... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update New trade deal unlikely to prevent 2019 slowdown While the macroeconomic implications of replacing NAFTA with USMCA are minor, the diminished risk of US auto tariffs is good news for the Canadian economy. The effective removal of that threat could... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s GDP growth forecasts are far too optimistic The economic assumptions underpinning Italy’s budget forecasts look over-optimistic. As a result, while the Government expects the public debt ratio to fall over the next few years, we think that it... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) September’s falls in the Swiss and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs leave them still pointing to strong growth in the sector. But it is in Sweden that price pressures seem to be strongest. 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The rebound in the manufacturing PMI in September suggests that the sector will no longer drag on growth in Q3. What’s more, the export orders balance recovered much of last month’s sharp fall... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.), Manuf. PMI (Sep.) August’s further fall in euro-zone unemployment adds to evidence that wage growth is likely to rise further in the coming months, supporting the case for gradual ECB policy normalisation. But there... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) August’s household borrowing figures provided further signs that consumers’ appetite for unsecured borrowing is waning. But the slowdown is arguably a welcome development since it eases concerns that... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The continued fall of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September underlines the fact that conditions remained tough in Q3. While we think the economy probably exited recession, growth was very weak... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy to gather momentum Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery gathered pace in Q2 and we think that GDP growth will accelerate further over the coming quarters as oil output rises and fiscal stimulus supports stronger activity in... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
