Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) The softness of the Russian activity data for September means that overall GDP growth probably weakened to around 1.5% y/y in Q3 (from 1.9% y/y in Q2). That said, there are still reasons to think that... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) August’s drop in manufacturing sales was almost entirely due to temporary plant shutdowns in the automotive sector. Sales are therefore likely to rebound in September, particularly with surveys... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The modest 0.3% m/m rise in industrial production last month was driven by continued gains in manufacturing output, suggesting that the sector is holding up better than we had anticipated. But the... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: Elections will not improve long-run outlook Even if a planned election for next year passes smoothly, political uncertainty is likely to remain a drag on Thailand’s growth prospects. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery losing steam Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen a touch in 2019, but growth across the region will remain weaker than consensus expectations. We think that growth in Nigeria will slow... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) Turkish industrial production held up better-than-expected in August but there are clear signs that underlying growth in the sector is losing momentum. The effects of the recent currency crisis and... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will a trade war sink the global economy? It would require a significant escalation from the measures seen so far for a trade war to be the trigger of the next global downturn. The bigger risks at this stage are that lower-level skirmishes... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will a trade war sink the global economy? It would require a significant escalation from the measures seen so far for a trade war to be the trigger of the next global downturn. The bigger risks at this stage are that lower-level skirmishes... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Despite the disappointing 0.1% m/m rise in headline retail sales in September, the strength of underlying sales suggests that third-quarter real consumption growth slowed only gradually to 3.5%... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Revisiting the fallout from the US-China trade war Even though Australia is strongly dependent on the health of China’s economy, it won’t suffer much from China’s escalating trade conflict with the US. If anything, in the near-term it will benefit... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in August puts paid to a strong rebound in overall GDP growth in Q3. But the drop was due in large part to a slump in construction. And with... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger growth based on shaky foundations We are gradually getting a clearer idea of how GDP growth in the third quarter shaped up. And so far, it is looking like it will be a pretty good number. But we doubt that the recent improvement will... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Consumer price inflation crept only a little higher last month. But with core inflation still well above the Reserve Bank’s target, we think that the tightening cycle has a little further to run. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany industry not as bad as it looks Some of the recent weakness in euro-zone industry, particularly that in Germany, seems to have been caused by hold-ups relating to new emissions tests. While part of this delayed output will probably... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
