UK Economics Update Autumn Budget improves consumer outlook Things are finally looking up for consumers. Not only did yesterday’s Budget provide a welcome boost to households’ finances, but a recovery in real pay growth now appears to be taking root. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth eases in Q3 Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth eased in Q3 on the back of weakness in Emerging Europe and Latin America. This seems to be due to a slowdown in consumer-facing sectors rather than industry. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks back on the radar Political developments have re-emerged as a key risk to the region’s economic outlook in recent weeks. The economic fallout for Saudi Arabia from the Khashoggi scandal should be limited, at least in... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected rebound in Mexican GDP in Q3, following its contraction in Q2, supports our view that growth will be better than most are anticipating in the coming quarters. Our forecast... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy to slow further We think that global GDP growth slowed to around 3% annualised in the third quarter and that it will weaken further over the next year or so as the US and Chinese economies lose momentum. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EZ Q3 GDP (Prelim. Flash) & EC Survey (Oct.) While the 0.2% expansion in the euro-zone economy was disappointing, it probably in part reflects temporary factors. As a result, we expect there to be some recovery in the coming quarters. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Budget plans put focus on weak fiscal positions Policymakers in South Africa and Nigeria both laid out fiscal plans this month, but their responses to weak revenues were very different. South Africa’s new finance minister announced a wider deficit... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) Our weighted average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) fell to an 11-month low in October, suggesting that GDP growth across the region continued to slow at the... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Response – Hammond splashes the cash As expected, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave the Chancellor a helping hand in the Autumn Budget, allowing him to deliver a number of expensive spending pledges, while still managing to... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi to break through 7.0 before long The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have stepped up intervention recently to support the renminbi as it has approached 7.0 to the US dollar. Many are talking about that line as a psychological... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could EMs cause the next crash? Classic EM crises have caused waves, but have rarely triggered global downturns. And in any case the current risk of a 1980s-style EM crisis is low. The bigger risk is of a China ‘hard landing’ which... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms unlikely to lead to another fiscal stimulus With the Democrats likely to win control of the House, while the Republicans maintain a slim majority in the Senate, the chances of another fiscal stimulus being agreed after the midterm elections... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could EMs cause the next crash? Classic EM crises have caused waves, but have rarely triggered global downturns. And in any case the current risk of a 1980s-style EM crisis is low. The bigger risk is of a China ‘hard landing’ which... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures provided further signs that consumers are becoming more wary about loading up on unsecured debt. But households remain upbeat about their financial position so... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges down, more weakness on the horizon Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged down last month and shows a more pronounced slowdown over the past year than the official GDP figures. We anticipate further weakness ahead as... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update House prices falls will weigh on consumer spending Households responded to rising house prices by lifting spending and we think they will eventually respond to falling prices with lower spending. This wealth effect may lower annual GDP growth by 0.3... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
