Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The continued weakness of Turkey’s PMI provides further evidence that the economy has fallen into a deep recession. Elsewhere, the drop in the Czech PMI last month suggests that softness in the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Don’t expect a change in rates for at least three years The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 8th November, with recent encouraging economic data making a cut less likely. Even so, we... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped in October, bucking the trend across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The latest survey data, while not as bad as some feared, still paint a fairly downbeat picture. We expect the economy to weaken further in the coming months, triggering additional policy easing. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The October PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum at the start of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) Continued solid growth in export volumes suggests that the trade war isn’t yet acting as a major drag for Australia’s export sector. In fact, we think that the weaker exchange rate will result in a... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) The continued fall in house prices in October is consistent with our view that prices will ultimately drop by at least 12%, making the current downturn the longest and deepest in Australia’s modern... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising oil output boosting growth in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy picked up in August on the back of rising oil output. And while the threat of the US imposing sanctions on the Kingdom has clouded the outlook, we still... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Crisis in Sri Lanka is bad news for the economy The current political crisis in Sri Lanka, which has seen the country’s president, Maithripala Sirisena, replace Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, comes at a... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) Although the pace of growth slipped in August, the small rise GDP was still stronger than indicated by the timelier data. That will encourage policymakers and suggests that the Bank of Canada remains... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional slowdown to continue Growth in most of Emerging Europe will continue to slow over the next couple of years, and by more than most expect. The slowdown is set to be sharpest in Turkey, where the recent currency crisis will... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Emissions testing to blame for Q3 slowdown Data on car production imply that delays related to emissions testing may have been entirely responsible for the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.2% in Q3. While the underlying... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The weak tone of October’s GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence survey is not all that worrying, given that it appears to largely reflect seasonal factors. The bigger picture is that, so long as a Brexit deal... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q3 Advanced) GDP growth in Taiwan slowed last quarter, mainly due to a sharp slowdown in export demand. With external headwinds set to increase, we think growth will continue to slow. 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Oct.) Downbeat official PMI readings for October suggest that while policy support is having some effect on construction activity, it has yet to fully offset broader downward pressure on the rest of the... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The slump in industrial production in September means that Q3 GDP may have fallen by more than we had anticipated. But the recent weakness probably reflects the impact of natural disasters and a... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
