UK Economics Update Car emissions tests not a big deal for UK growth in Q3 While new EU emissions tests for cars appear to be responsible for a slowdown in growth in the euro-zone in Q3, we doubt it will have had much impact on UK GDP growth. However, the tests do look... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Still some slack left in Egypt’s economy Egypt’s economy has grown at a robust pace over the past couple of years, but we estimate that there is still an output gap equal to 2.0-2.5% of potential GDP. Accordingly, as demand strengthens, the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s euro-zone retail sales data rounded off a weak quarter for the sector, implying that overall household spending rose only marginally in Q3. Nevertheless, we still think that the outlook... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The acceleration in wage growth in September was driven by volatile bonus payments whereas growth in base pay slowed rather sharply. The final reading may yet show stronger growth in regular earnings... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will stronger growth in the Gulf boost the rest of MENA? We expect that growth will strengthen in the Gulf over the coming quarters, but any potential boost to the rest of the MENA region is likely to be modest. While remittance flows might pick up, trade... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s small rise in German industrial production suggests that delays to car output are not doing quite as much damage as we had feared, but it still seems likely that GDP barely expanded in Q3. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Slowdown ahead Global economic growth has held up quite well in recent months despite the sell-off in equity markets, but we expect it to slow over the next two years. The US economy is likely to cool as monetary... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Financial conditions tightening in several EMs Strains in the balance of payments of some EMs last quarter seem to have been driven mainly by a decline in flows to bond markets. These flows now seem to have stabilised, but financial conditions... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & PPI (Sep.) October’s PMI data suggest that most of the major euro-zone economies will perform a little better in Q4 than in Q3. The exception is Italy, where the PMI implies that output contracted. 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Sep.) Sweden’s monthly private sector production data suggest that overall GDP growth slowed in Q3. But with the timelier surveys continuing to paint a fairly positive picture, we remain fairly optimistic... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts Q4 with a whimper rather than a bang The large fall in the PMIs in October suggests that the economy slowed sharply at the start of Q4. Admittedly, some slowdown from rolling three-month GDP growth of 0.7% in July and August always... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Nov.) The big drop in the Markit/CIPS services PMI suggests that GDP growth slowed sharply at the start of Q4, which could be a sign that Brexit uncertainty is increasingly weighing on activity. So long as... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s PMI data suggest that the fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, including the threat of sanctions by the US, has had no discernible impact on Saudi Arabia’s economy... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in October, to 25.2% y/y, is unlikely to prompt further interest rate hikes from the central bank. Instead, the main risk is that, with pipeline... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q3) Indonesia’s GDP growth slowed from 5.3% y/y in Q2 to 5.2% in Q3, and looks set to slow a little further over the coming quarters due to a combination of tighter monetary policy and weaker export... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The fiscal winds change, higher rates on the horizon Philip “the fiscal hawk” Hammond was surprisingly generous in the Budget on Monday, spending his entire windfall from the downward revision to the OBR’s borrowing forecast. This means that rather than... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
