BoE Watch An uncomfortable wait for Brexit clarity In normal times, the MPC would be preparing the ground for another interest rate hike. After all, pay growth has picked up far more sharply than the Bank of England had anticipated. But as it is still... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary courts controversy, Russian economy picking up The creation of a controversial parallel new court system in Hungary – signed into law on Wednesday – will bring the government into further conflict with Brussels, but the economic impact is only... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to the IMF, Nigeria stuck in first gear Angola’s $3.7bn deal with the IMF adds to the evidence that President João Lourenço is making a real shift towards more orthodox policymaking and while growth will stay weak in the near-term, economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI was almost entirely driven by a sharp drop in France, perhaps suggesting that the ‘gilets jaunes’ protests have had a serious economic effect. But even... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) Investment and consumption both appear to have cooled last month, with softer foreign demand also weighing on industrial production. We think further weakness is on the horizon. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The Q4 Tankan survey was better than most had anticipated and adds to the evidence that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, firms are reporting mounting difficulties finding staff which... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Effect of stockpiling on growth will be small We are not convinced by the argument that stockpiling ahead of Brexit will provide a big boost to GDP growth over the coming months and prompt an abrupt fall thereafter. Given that a large proportion... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2019 We think 2019 is likely to be a year in which EM growth slows, and by more than most expect, while asset prices fall. In this Focus, we outline our key calls for next year. 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal troubles are not over Italy’s government has agreed to reduce its budget deficit forecast for next year, which reduces the risk of a crisis in the near term. But this does not spell the end of its fiscal troubles. With the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB turns even more dovish The Swiss National Bank reiterated its commitment to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and revised down its forecasts for inflation and GDP. As we think inflation will be even lower than... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka political crisis: growth to slow, rates to rise With the political crisis in Sri Lanka showing no sign of coming to an end, we are changing our GDP growth and interest rate forecasts for next year. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth has slowed, but recession risk small The euro-zone economy’s recent performance has been worse than we or the consensus expected. But for now at least, it seems to be a garden variety slowdown rather than something more worrying. The... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The larger-than-expected contraction in Mexican industrial production in October was driven partly by a collapse in mining output, but other parts of industry also struggled. October’s disappointing... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Nov.) & Cap. Utilisation (Q3) Base effects caused annual house price inflation to rise again in November, but it will decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the sharp fall in capacity utilisation in the third quarter is another... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) Although industrial production growth remains strong and core inflation is staying elevated, with headline inflation down sharply and an ally of Prime Minister Modi, Shaktikanta Das, the new head of... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More signs of strong start to Q4 Retail sales figures released today add to the evidence that South Africa maintained robust growth at the start of Q4. Inflation remained high in November, suggesting another rate hike in Q1 2019. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
