Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s small fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) did little to reverse the previous month’s increase and left the index consistent with strong annual GDP growth of over 2%. 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investors under-pricing NAFTA risks The loonie continued to appreciate against the greenback this week, despite there seemingly being little chance of the US and Canada reaching a NAFTA deal before the month-end deadline. Investors... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs stable at the end of Q3 Preliminary PMIs suggest that GDP was expanding at a steady pace in advanced economies in September. The euro-zone has not recovered from a weak first half of the year, and the US has continued to do... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly PMIs and supportive ECB offer reassurance The latest data add to the evidence that the slowdown in the euro-zone economy this year has not just been down to a series of “one-offs”. We expect growth to slow further over the next couple of... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s stimulus plan: Doing more with less President Ramaphosa’s US$28bn infrastructure fund is mostly made up of already-committed public spending, and the economic effect will be limited. Lower-profile reforms to visa rules, mining... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack The consumer sector gains momentum in Q3 Retail sales volumes rose in August despite the boost to sales from July’s warm weather and the World Cup unwinding. Indeed, while food sales fell in August, this was more than made up for by the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey underwhelms, Russia budget, Hungary rates reaction The New Economy Program presented by Turkey’s finance minister on Thursday included more realistic economic forecasts, but it failed to build on the central bank’s interest rate hike last week and... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The softening of the euro-zone Composite PMI in September adds to evidence that the region’s economy has lost some momentum after 2017’s very strong expansion. But as the index is still consistent... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) Polish activity data for August were strong and suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a rapid 5% y/y in Q3. The risks to our 2018 GDP growth forecast of 4.3% lie to the upside. 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth holding up but outlook still challenging Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows surprisingly rapid growth in August. But with the impact of property controls and slower credit creation yet to be fully felt, growth still faces near-term... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The continued increase in the manufacturing PMI in September suggests that industrial activity should soon start to strengthen again. 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Despite inflation ticking up in August, prolonging the squeeze on real incomes, retail sales volumes increased. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s driving stronger Saudi capital outflows? Capital outflows from Saudi Arabia have picked up over the past 18 months, but the bulk of this seems to reflect ongoing foreign investments by the sovereign wealth fund. A bigger concern from the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Temporary respite from an easing trend The solid rise in GDP in the second quarter will give the RBNZ more confidence in its view that GDP growth will rise back above 3.0% next year. In contrast, we believe that low confidence, a soft... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity figures for August showed a slump in the agricultural sector, which is likely to cause GDP growth to weaken in Q3. The experience from the past decade is that these... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why rate hikes in Thailand would be a bad idea The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of accompanying statement suggests that rate hikes are in the pipeline. With inflationary pressures very... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read