Global Economics Focus Assessing several “bellwethers” of the world economy Having considered seven commonly-cited indicators of the state of global economic growth, we conclude that trade volumes and Markit’s PMI surveys provide the best guide to the state of activity in... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys highlight particular weakness of Italy While business surveys have weakened throughout the euro-zone, they imply quite different things for growth in each economy. The Spanish surveys still bode well. But the German and French indicators... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit and the economy: What next? MPs are increasingly pushing for the Government to change tack to break the current political impasse by stepping up “no deal” planning, considering a second referendum, forcing a general election or... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus What to expect in 2019 Economic growth in India has peaked in this cycle, but we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, fiscal policy will need to be tightened and... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Sri Lanka slowed in Q3, but this has already been overshadowed by the de-escalation of the political crisis. With further fiscal tightening on the horizon, growth is likely to remain... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) to a twenty-seven month low adds to evidence that the slowdown in Germany is more than just a soft patch. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption boosted by plunging gasoline prices The boost to purchasing power from the recent plunge in gasoline prices has already fed through to stronger real consumption growth. Even assuming a more modest rise in December, control group retail... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2019 China’s economic slowdown looks set to deepen next year, weighing on equity prices and the renminbi. Policy stimulus should put a floor beneath growth before the year is out but won’t drive a strong... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Oct.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for October suggest that, after contracting in Q3, the economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q4. Weak economic growth... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Ending 2018 on a weaker footing EM growth has slowed over the course of 2018 and our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate growth fell to its weakest pace in two years in Q4, at around 4.0%. 2019 is unlikely to be better. We expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown will be biggest downside risk in 2019 As the fiscal stimulus fades and the lagged impact of monetary tightening intensifies, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.2% in 2019 and only 1.2% in 2020. Markets apparently believe... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s first budget, Argentina in recession Mexico’s 2019 budget that will be presented to Congress on Saturday looks set to (unrealistically) target a primary budget surplus. But, more importantly, if spending is projected to rise by much more... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft business surveys a sign of things to come Markit’s flash PMIs ended the year on a weak note, signalling the start of a US slowdown and pointing to weaker world trade growth at the beginning of 2019, despite the US-China truce on tariffs. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.6% m/m rise in headline industrial production last month was entirely due to a surge in mining and utilities output, which will be reversed over the coming months. The bigger story is the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish as PMI confirms growth slowdown Following this week’s ECB meeting, and the latest data on economic growth in the currency union, the chance that the Bank raises interest rates next year has fallen. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The 0.9% m/m surge in underlying retail sales in November, which followed an upwardly-revised 0.7% gain in October, suggests that real consumption growth has remained stronger in the fourth quarter... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
