India Economics Weekly Fiscal giveaways getting ramped up The dust has barely settled from the state election results announced last week, but our prediction that they would trigger a spate of fiscal giveaways is already being borne out. Farmer loan waivers... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Shadows over 2019 lift We expect the global economy to slow further next year which will be a headwind to trade. But the government has recognised the threat to domestic demand posed by next year’s sales tax hike and... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Groundwork for a strong 2019 in place A boost to retail sales in November from Black Friday saw sales record their largest monthly increase since May. Nonetheless, as this followed two consecutive monthly falls, the retail sector will end... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) A surge in sales of household goods due to Black Friday spending helped retail sales to rebound in November. But December might be a little weaker as consumers probably bought some Christmas presents... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Uneven recovery hints at weak 2019 Figures released this month showed that Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest two economies remained weak in late 2018, but that activity picked up faster elsewhere in the region. These readings strengthen our... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q3) While GDP growth softened in the third quarter early signs suggest growth may be a little firmer in Q4 so we doubt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be too concerned. But we expect GDP growth to... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Nov.) Russian activity data for November add to the evidence that, after expanding by a tepid 1.5% y/y in Q3, the economy has regained momentum in Q4. We expect that this recovery will be sustained over the... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for weaker growth in 2019 EM GDP growth lost momentum over the second half of 2018 and we expect this to continue next year as growth in Emerging Asia, notably China, and Emerging Europe weakens. 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Key calls for 2019, and how we differ from consensus We expect Emerging Asia to grow at its weakest rate in 2019 since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. With inflation also set to drop back, the regional tightening cycle is likely to come to an end... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: more to net trade boost than weaker peso GDP data released last night confirmed that Argentina entered a technical recession in Q3 and, while net trade provided a positive contribution to growth, we don’t think that this can be pinned solely... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov.) The slump in export values in November suggests that growth in export volumes will continue to fall short of growth in import volumes in the fourth quarter. And the recent weakening in external demand... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Turning the corner The recent slowdown in Latin American growth appears to have passed its trough. Our regional GDP Tracker suggests that output rose by around 1.3-1.5% y/y at the start of Q4, up from a low point of... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Risks still lie to the downside As oil prices have fallen over the past few months, investors’ expectations for interest rates in Norway have fallen roughly into line with our own. Rate expectations in Switzerland have edged down... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
