Asia Economics Weekly Weak end to 2018, rate cuts likely in the Philippines Data published over the past week show that Emerging Asia ended 2018 on a soft note, a trend we expect to continue into 2019. Meanwhile, a further sharp drop in inflation in the Philippines in... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Dec.) Despite the small rise in the headline index of the Markit/CIPS services survey in December, it is quite clear that economic growth slowed in Q4. But we think this survey is once again overstating the... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Dec.) Data released this morning add to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union has shifted down a gear and, with underlying inflation still low, it now looks likely that the ECB will wait... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The sharp fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 54.1 in December, from 59.3, echoes the deterioration in the other manufacturing surveys and suggests that the slowdown in global growth is starting to... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Solid momentum, low oil prices boost outlook Strong growth in Q3 and the recent fall in oil prices suggest that Kenya’s economy will perform well going into 2019. Despite lingering structural problems, we’ve raised our growth forecast for this... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Regional growth to slow in 2019, Egypt rate cuts The raft of GDP figures released over the past week showed that, in aggregate, the MENA economies strengthened in Q3 of last year. But we think that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in 2019. Meanwhile... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further fall in Turkish inflation in December, combined with the weakness of the latest activity and the recovery in the lira, means that the central bank is likely to press ahead with a rate cut... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further slowdown The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month was fairly broad-based and supports our view that growth in the emerging world as a whole will slow this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft business surveys set tone for 2019 Markit’s global manufacturing PMI dropped again in December, adding to evidence that the world economy ended 2018 on a weaker footing. We think that activity will lose further momentum this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Despite the headline manufacturing PMI hitting a six-month high in December, the sector probably stagnated at the end of 2018. There were some signs, though, that worries of an impending no deal... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4 Advanced) The advanced estimate of Singapore’s GDP should be treated with caution, but it appears that weak global demand weighed heavily on growth in Q4, a trend we expect to continue this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s weak manufacturing PMI will strengthen the Turkish central bank’s case that monetary policy should be loosened. We think that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is more likely... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in December, but the reading still indicates that the sector was performing well at the end of 2018. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) While December PMIs for Emerging Asia bounced back a little in some economies, they still indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost momentum over the course of Q4. Meanwhile, timely export... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Activity & Labour Market Data (Nov.) Even though industrial production and retail sales fell rather sharply in November, both should have risen across the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further over... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
