China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2024) After slowing in Q2, economic momentum appears to have stabilised somewhat last month, with a pick-up in consumer spending and services activity largely offsetting a slowdown in investment and... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa experiencing a two speed recovery South African economy looks to have recorded a pick-up in growth in Q2, but the recovery is operating at two speeds with retail sales and manufacturing on the up, while the mining sector remains a... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s tourism sector hit hard by spillovers of war Jordan’s economy has been among the hardest hit from the indirect spillovers of the war in Gaza. While severe balance of payments of strains are likely to be avoided, GDP growth will suffer as the key... 14th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2, 2nd est.), Employment (Q2) and Industrial Production (June) 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q2 2024) The larger-than-expected pick-up in Polish GDP growth in Q2, to 1.5% q/q (from 0.8% in Q1), suggests that the risks to our forecast for GDP to expand by 3% over the year as a whole are now tilted to... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q2) and Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, to 4.0% y/y, suggests that the economy has lost a bit of momentum. But overheating pressures remain alive and the increase in inflation to 9.1% y/y in July... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Temporary disruption or more serious downturn? In purely mechanical terms, the limited data released this week did trigger a downward revision to our third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, from 2.0%. But only because the June trade data sets... 9th August 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Strong rebound in housing activity an upside risk to GDP Our forecast implies that the recovery in the housing market will both directly and indirectly add about 0.8% to the level of GDP by the end of 2026. But the risk is that the housing market rebound is... 9th August 2024 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Market turmoil and Africa, Uganda and Kenya rate cuts Idiosyncratic factors seemed to play a bigger role than the recent global financial market turmoil in driving African markets this week. But while the fall in oil prices may be overdone, African... 9th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Market “turmoil” not a big concern for euro-zone The brief period of turmoil in global markets which continued earlier this week should not have a lasting impact on the euro-zone. Most of the market moves were small and have already been largely... 9th August 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe & the mid-summer market turmoil Global financial markets have unwound some of the big moves from late last week and early this week, and we doubt the latest market gyrations will change the economic or policymaking outlook much in... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to remain timid despite renminbi turnaround The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data and resulting global market fallout hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. While US recession risks have risen somewhat, a soft landing... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The timing of Asian rate cuts and the impact of global markets volatility 1723620600 Even as most EM central banks outside of Asia started lowering interest rates a year ago, those within the region have kept their powder dry. That could be about to change.
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The global market turmoil and the impact on MENA Financial markets in the Middle East weren’t spared from the global sell-off earlier in the week. There could be a macro impact on the Gulf economies through the fall in oil prices, either via lower... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
