Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November’s fall in GDP appears to have been followed by further weakness in December and January. With economic growth set to slow sharply this year, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to follow through... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: oil output cuts to cause fresh slowdown Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy gathered pace towards the end of last year, recording growth of as much as 5% y/y. But oil output cuts, combined with a tightening of fiscal policy in... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Further evidence of a Q4 slowdown Data released over the past month suggest that regional GDP growth slowed from to 2.4% y/y in Q3 to a two-year low of 1.2% y/y in Q4. This was due mostly to the economic slump in Turkey, where... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & Unemployment (Dec.) Q4’s GDP growth rate of 0.2% will do nothing to reassure policymakers about the outlook for this year. We think growth will be only around 1.0% in 2019, and even this would require a slight pick-up... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4 Advanced) GDP growth in Taiwan slowed last quarter in y/y terms to the weakest pace since 2016 on the back of cooling investment. Although domestic demand should remain relatively healthy, with headwinds to the... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2018) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2018 GDP, which showed an expansion of 5.1% over the year as a whole, suggests that the economy slowed in Q4. Inventories appear to have exerted a sizeable... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) While GfK/NOP consumer confidence held steady in January, it did so at a five-year low of -14, and the bigger picture is that consumers remain downbeat despite a fairly healthy economic backdrop. That... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? Slower growth in China won’t immediately restrain Australia’s exports. But by lowering commodity prices, it makes investment in new mining projects less profitable and means that the mining investment... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) While the official manufacturing PMI didn’t weaken any further in January, it still suggests that the economy lost momentum at the start of the year. 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The jump in industrial production in the fourth quarter points to a strong rebound in GDP. But the worsening of the business surveys suggests that a renewed slowdown at the start of this year is... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What a no-deal Brexit would mean for Ireland The latest twists in the Brexit saga suggest to us that the UK is most likely to stay in the EU beyond 29th March and leave later in the year with some kind of deal. If so, we think Ireland’s GDP... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Most economies weak at turn of the year The latest figures suggest that Africa’s key economies stumbled in late 2018 and early 2019. Growth in South Africa probably slowed in the final quarter of last year (though it remained strong by... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slump in technology exports to weigh on Asian growth The slump in Asian exports late last year was mainly due to a sharp fall in demand for electronic products, which most likely reflects a turn in the sector’s inventory cycle. The poor prospects for... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Households able to spend, but not yet willing A strong labour market, rising real wages and more supportive fiscal policy should mean that households will be in a pretty good position over the next two years, even if interest rates rise. And once... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) Preliminary Q4 GDP figures from Mexico were better than expected, but showed a sharp slowdown in growth from Q3. We still expect growth to accelerate this year and our forecast for a pick-up to 2.5%... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) The uncertainty around Brexit may have weighed on household borrowing in December. But stronger finances should allow households to continue to spend even if borrowing remains subdued. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
