Canada Economics Weekly Warning signs for business investment The data this week cast doubt on the Bank of Canada’s view that the worst is already behind us for the economy, with manufacturing sales slumping to a two-and-a-half year low in June and non... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly More good data all around The data released this week was all consistent with a soft landing: Price pressures remained muted last month, while the strength of retail sales and the drop back in initial jobless claims suggested... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK enjoying ‘Goldilocks’ conditions? The good news just kept coming this week. The economy grew at an above-trend rate for the second quarter in a row in Q2, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. At 2.2%, CPI inflation is only a touch... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish outperformance The standout feature of the data released in the region this week was the strength of Polish GDP in Q2 – the economy is now comfortably outperforming its peers in the region. The most plausible... 16th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2024) It was an extremely poor month for the manufacturing sector in June, with sales falling to a two-and-a-half-year low. As new orders slumped, inventories are elevated and the S&P Global manufacturing... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela? Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How worrying is German wage inflation? In our view, the concerns which were raised again this week about a wage-price spiral in Germany look overdone. The Indeed tracker suggests that wage pressures have eased since late 2022 and there are... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mpox, SA’s geopolitical pivot This week, the WHO declared mpox a global public health emergency amidst a surge in cases in parts of Africa. Beyond the human tragedy, there may be disruption to economic activity in the region, with... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia GDP (Q2, second estimate) The second estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed that Malaysia’s economy accelerated sharply but, with inflation set to jump, commodity prices likely to decline and the boost from tourism set to fade, we still... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus How to fix China’s property destocking scheme The property support measures included in yesterday’s stimulus announcement won’t be enough to drive a turnaround in the housing market. In a detailed analysis of the government’s property destocking... 16th August 2024 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ likely to loosen faster than it has signalled When it kicked off its easing cycle this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a measured approach to cutting rates over the coming months. However, we think the Bank is understating the... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The fall in manufacturing output in July was entirely driven by temporary disruptions which should reverse this month. Excluding those temporary factors, this is a strong report which, together with... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2024) Switzerland’s sporting event-adjusted GDP growth accelerated to 0.5% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in over a year and slightly above our forecast of 0.4%. At the margin this may give the SNB some... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2024) While the economy flatlined in June, it still managed to grow by 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q2. That said, some of the rebound in activity in Q2 may have been due to catch-up growth following the... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (August 2024) The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths when it comes to policy setting in the near term. With the New Zealand economy in a tailspin and inflation well on its way to target, the RBNZ... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
