US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Apr. 2024) The fall in the ISM services index to 49.4 in April, from 51.4 in March, suggests that services spending could slow from the 4% annualised in the first quarter. The prices paid index rebounded but... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Which survey data are giving the best steer on activity? The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies, but we’re more... 3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Q1 growth rebound, Panama votes, fiscal risks rising The activity data from Latin America released over the past week or so suggest that, having come to a standstill in Q4, there was a strong rebound in growth in Q1 on the back of robust services... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest data support the case of the ECB’s doves Data released this week showed that euro-zone services inflation fell in April for the first time in five months. We think that the continued pass-through of lower energy costs and slower wage growth... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly OECD too gloomy, rebound in job vacancies fleeting Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall further than most expect explains why we think the OECD’s recent take on the UK economy is too gloomy. And while the recent rebound in job vacancies could... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks won’t breathe easy just yet New Zealand's labour market was in worse shape last quarter than most had anticipated. What's more, with the economy clearly struggling, labour market slack is likely to rise further. However, with... 3rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show recovery in global industry still an EM story The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry continued to recover at the start of Q2, but that this was entirely due to higher output in emerging markets, while activity remained much... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong The EM manufacturing PMI for April showed that industry continued its strong start to the year through to the beginning of Q2. At a regional level, the narrative was largely unchanged: India remains... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surveys point to weakness in construction to come Euro-zone construction output picked up at the beginning of this year but we don’t think this was the beginning of a sustained rebound. Surveys suggest that output will decline in the next few months... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation to return to target by mid-year Korea is one of the few countries in the region where inflation is still above target. However, with economic growth set to slow and the government stepping up efforts to bring food prices down, we... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Answering your questions on the German economy On Tuesday we held a Drop-in on the outlook for the German economy. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed and answers some of the questions that we received during the event. 2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI jumped in April, adding to signs the economy is finally moving on from stagnation as the electricity situation improves. And with price pressures still elevated, the... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The weak set of manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe for April suggest that industrial sectors remained a drag on the regional recovery at the start of Q2. In Turkey and Russia, the... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (April) The PMIs from Emerging Asia remained weak in April. We think manufacturing activity across most of Asia will remain subdued in the near term but output in Taiwan and Korea is likely to hold up better... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 2024, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that the economy exited recession in Q1 and we expect the recovery to continue over the course of the year – and be a bit stronger than most currently... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
