Commodities Update Weak industrial production points to lower prices The recent upturn in most commodity prices appears at odds with the negative trend in global manufacturing. Of course, supply factors could explain the divergence, and probably do in the case of oil... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slowdown in Czech economy likely to continue We think that weakness in Germany and softening domestic demand will result in Czech GDP growth slowing to about 2.5% this year. This puts us at the bottom of the range of forecasters. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth weakening Major electronics firms and carmakers offered workers smaller base pay increases during this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did last year. (See Chart.) Only a small share of firms... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Drop in wealth to weigh on spending growth Consumers’ housing wealth declined last year for the first time in over three decades. The modest fall is unlikely to cause a drop in consumption, but it does suggest that spending growth will remain... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What next for business investment? What happens to business investment next depends on Brexit. But in this Update, we estimate how much has been lost, how much will come back and when. The main message is that some boost is in the... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth from 2.6% y/y in Q3 to 3.6% y/y in Q4 was driven in large part by stronger domestic demand, but this has also caused the current account deficit to widen rapidly... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted inflation strengthens case for Fed patience The deluge of data this week provided some mixed signs on economic activity, but one clear theme from the producer and consumer price releases was that what little inflationary pressure there is in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The further decline in manufacturing output in February confirms that the global industrial slowdown is now weighing more heavily on US producers. With tighter fiscal and monetary policy constraining... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss GDP to slow, Norway bucking the Nordic trend We have cut our forecast for Swiss GDP growth this year to a below-consensus 1.0%. This leaves us broadly in line with the government’s recently-revised forecast for 2019, but we think its forecast... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Not yet at a turning point We don’t think the increase in euro-zone industrial production in January marks a turning point for the economy, given that the business surveys for February were weak and global demand is still... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The 1.4% monthly rise in manufacturing sales volumes at the start of the year will allay fears that Canadian GDP growth slowed even further in the first quarter. Growth is still set to be below... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Investment recovery concentrated in key states India’s economic diversity and the decentralisation of policymaking power mean that investors should keep an eye on developments at the state as well as the national level to understand trends in the... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Losing confidence The continued decline in business confidence in February suggests that the falls in business investment will persist into 2019. And the deterioration in consumer confidence may motivate households to... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Thailand: outlook unlikely to improve after the election Thailand’s upcoming election will do little to improve the economic outlook. Whoever wins, the shift towards economic populism is likely to continue, delaying reforms needed to raise productivity... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland’s GDP (Q4 2018) Ireland’s Q4 GDP data, released today, show that the economy slowed towards the end of last year. But timelier indicators suggest that, despite rising uncertainty about Brexit and the wider euro-zone... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
