Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) A weak batch of ESIs for January supports our view that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe will slow by more than more expect over the course of 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF & Swedish Econ. Tendency Indicator (Jan.) January’s surveys suggest that growth has slowed sharply in both Switzerland and Sweden. The SNB will see this as supporting its ultra-accommodative policy. But for the Riksbank it creates downside... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to lay groundwork for policy loosening We agree with financial market expectations and the analyst consensus that interest rates will stay on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s meeting on 7th February – the first under the stewardship of... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The strong rise in December’s retail sales values suggests that private consumption growth in the fourth quarter could slightly exceed our expectations. And as consumers bring forward spending ahead... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Consumers unlikely to spend their gasoline windfall The drop in gasoline prices in recent months is good news for households’ purchasing power, but we doubt they will spend all of their windfall. In fact, limited scope for further strong house price... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth slowing, rates rising GDP growth across Emerging Europe is likely to slow in 2019, and by more than most anticipate. Turkey’s economy will continue to suffer from the effects of last year’s lira crisis, while the slowdown... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Slump in Asian industry drags down EM growth Aggregate EM growth slowed to its weakest pace in two years in the middle of Q4, and more timely data point to further weakness. We expect the slowdown to continue over the course of this year. 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports ringing alarm bells Most recent signs point to a gradual deceleration in China’s economy but the import data are a key exception, showing an abrupt contraction in November and December. While there appear to be several... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf’s economic recovery to falter A raft of GDP releases over the past month showed that growth in the Gulf strengthened in Q3 of last year, but a renewed slowdown is likely in the coming quarters. In aggregate, it looks like the Gulf... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Auto sector cannot account for weak Q4 GDP growth Problems in the auto industry explain most of the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q3 last year. But in Q4, although car production remained weak, it did not fall further, and it will not have... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will the UK cope with the global slowdown? As long as some form of Brexit deal is agreed this year, then the UK is well placed to shrug off the slowdown in the global economy. In fact, in 2020 the UK may surprise most people by being the... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Construction props up activity, but headwinds remain Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged up in December driven by strong construction activity. But with credit now growing at the slowest pace in more than a decade and the impact of... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Support for first-time home buyers may come too late A renewed increase in public support for first-time home buyers would probably result in a rebound in home sales and house prices. But with federal elections due by May, any step-up in government... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slightly more dovish ECB not a game-changer The turn towards a slightly more dovish tone by the ECB at its meeting on Thursday will have made policymakers at the SNB and the Riksbank even more hesitant to hike rates anytime soon. Next week, we... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slowdown intensifies, ECB slightly dovish The latest batch of business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy may be stalling rather than just slowing. We think the ECB will tweak its forward guidance in March, and will at least consider... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read