US Data Response GDP (Q1) The 3.2% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP, which was well above the consensus forecast at 2.0%, would seem to make a mockery of claims that the economy is slowing as the fiscal stimulus fades... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Ethiopia’s reforms: Push forward or risk falling back PM Abiy Ahmed’s political and economic reforms have drawn attention to Ethiopia’s huge potential. But the process remains fragile and could easily be reversed. Developing a private sector-led... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Spain’s economy will slow but continue to outperform Spain’s period of very strong growth has come to an end. Nevertheless, the latest data suggest that in the run-up to this weekend’s election, it is growing at a decent pace. And there still appears to... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly History suggests the RBA will cut rates in May The easing in underlying inflation this week prompted a sharp decline in market interest rate expectations. That makes sense because an equally weak inflation print prompted the RBA to cut interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Revisiting the impact of higher oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Activity (Mar.) March’s activity data were weak and suggests that the contraction in Q1 GDP will be sharper than what we initially expected. And although the jump in the unemployment rate in March merely reversed... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households happy to spend Some of the surge in retail sales in Q1, which has pushed the three-month-on-three-month growth rate back up to the pace seen before the EU referendum in 2016, might have been due to households... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The strong rise in underlying capital goods orders in March, together with stronger retail sales last month, suggests the economy is carrying a bit more momentum into the second quarter. But a drop... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1) The sharp slowdown in Korea’s economy in Q1, which saw GDP fall by 0.3% q/q, will probably mark a trough. But with headwinds to growth set to remain, a strong rebound is unlikely. In light of today’s... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game changer for Norway We expect that higher oil prices will result in the Norges Bank raising interest rates twice this year and that the krone will outperform its Nordic peers. However, if we are proved correct in our... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher oil price adds to headwinds for world economy While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Stuck in the middle lane The six-month delay to Brexit until 31st October 2019 has put the brakes on interest rate hikes and left the economy travelling in the middle lane, with GDP likely to rise by 1.5% this year. But... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since 2015 Regional GDP growth is set to slow to its weakest pace since 2015 this year and our forecasts for most countries are below consensus. Weakness in the euro-zone will weigh on the highly-open economies... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys remain consistent with slow growth The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey showed that firms’ expectations for future sales improved only slightly at the start of the year. The future sales balance is still consistent with annual... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: the economic impact of the attacks The deadly terrorist attacks that took place across Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday are first and foremost a human tragedy, but are also likely to have severe economic consequences. A big drop in tourist... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
