Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The April survey data suggest China’s economy has entered a softer patch and underpin our view that most industrial and oil prices will ease back in the coming months. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: More bad news across the region Figures released this month added to the evidence that African economies are struggling this year. The worst news was from South Africa and Angola, where recent activity data suggest that GDP actually... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) The first estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q1 and the labour market data for March were encouraging. But the timelier survey indicators have continued to weaken, and we expect the global economy to remain... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Taiwan held up surprisingly well last quarter, but we doubt this resilience will last. The breakdown of the figures show that domestic demand weakened further last quarter and that... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Given the current political impasse, it is reassuring that the GfK/NOP consumer confidence figure held steady again in April. And with the six-month delay to Brexit removing the chance of an imminent... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Apr.) The decrease in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in April leaves it consistent with subdued quarterly GDP growth this year, in line with our forecast. And we expect the franc to appreciate this year... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) After jumping in March, both manufacturing PMIs fell back in April, disappointing hopes for a further recovery and reinforcing our view that there are still some downside risks to near-term activity. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The extent of the monsoon rains has a significant impact on the livelihoods of millions of families in India given the high level of employment in agriculture. But at the macro level, the monsoon... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currency sell-off not a headwind to growth yet The sell-offs in the Argentine peso and Turkish lira have sparked fears of broader turmoil in EM financial markets. But, so far at least, this has yet to materialise. Sovereign dollar bond spreads... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional GDP growth reaches a trough in Q1 Aggregate GDP growth in Emerging Europe appears to have slowed from 1.9% y/y in Q4 to around 1.3% y/y in Q1. While we don’t anticipate much of a rebound in the coming quarters, it does at least appear... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges lower but short-run trough is near Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy weakened further in March. But the slowdown so far this year has been milder than we had anticipated and may be close to bottoming out. We have... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update An ageing population won’t stop growth in its tracks An ageing population should have dragged down participation in the labour force sharply over the past decade, but falling economic inactivity, particularly amongst women, has meant that the... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election outcome won’t end Spanish outperformance Following this weekend’s election, we suspect that Spain’s next government will tighten fiscal policy slightly, contributing to slower GDP growth over the coming years. But the country still looks set... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth weakest in nearly three years in Q1 Economic growth in the emerging world appears to have slowed further in the first quarter of this year, to its weakest pace since Q2 2016. Early indicators suggest that activity picked up at the end... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Underlying weakness will keep the Fed cautious There were plenty of positive headlines for the US economy this week, with GDP growth accelerating in the first quarter, durable goods orders surging in March, and the S&P 500 hitting a record high... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
