UK Economics Weekly Parliament hits Brexit back to May Parliament hit the Brexit ball back into May’s court this week, leaving us with no clearer picture of how Brexit might unfold than we had this time last week. But beneath the bouncing Brexit headlines... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q4 rebound, immigration boost The final few releases of December spending and output data have provided reassurance that Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4. But the early signs for the current quarter are not at all... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) Even though Brazilian industrial production rose by a slightly better-than-expected 0.2% m/m in December, the sector was a drag on growth over Q4 as a whole. The services sector seemed to fare a bit... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The developing global slowdown has caused the UK manufacturing sector to weaken despite evidence that activity is being supported by some stockbuilding ahead of Brexit. The upshot is that there is... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan rates will remain on hold, but cuts elsewhere Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate unchanged this week, and we think that they will hold rates over the remainder of the year. Peers in Angola and Ghana – who cut this week – will probably... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Manufacturing PMIs in South Africa and Nigeria both pointed to weak growth in January. Forward-looking measures, however, support our view that growth in South Africa will pick up later this year. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Another soft batch of PMI data from Central Europe suggests that the continued weakness of euro-zone industry is weighing heavily on the region’s export-led manufacturing sectors. On past form, the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The January PMIs for Emerging Asia make for grim reading, with the headline number falling across the region. Meanwhile, the weakness in the new export orders component and a further slowdown in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped in January, defying the trend across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s optimism faces reality check The RBA will probably continue to signal that the next move in rates is up at Tuesday’s meeting. But with mounting signs that the housing downturn is spreading to other parts of the economy and price... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Universal Basic Income is worthy but unfeasible The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention again this week. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The slump in the Caixin manufacturing PMI reading in January to its lowest since February 2016 paints a much bleaker picture than the official PMI reading released yesterday. With the headwinds from... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices have now fallen 7.6% from their peak and the pace of declines in recent months leads us to believe prices may now fall 15% from peak to trough. We believe such a large downturn would... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Italy in recession? The recession in Italy last year appears to have been due to a combination of (temporary) disruption in the car sector and a (perhaps less temporary) decline in confidence among consumers and firms... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political turmoil puts debt burdens under the spotlight Frontier dollar bonds have rallied this month, due partly to improved risk appetite, but also progress on IMF deals (Ukraine and Sri Lanka) and the political news flow (Venezuela and Lebanon). But it... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November’s fall in GDP appears to have been followed by further weakness in December and January. With economic growth set to slow sharply this year, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to follow through... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read