UK Economics Update Shying away from borrowing to spend on big items The subdued rise in borrowing in March may be because Brexit has sapped households’ desire to borrow to buy big items. At the aggregate level, low interest rates mean that debt is still manageable. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The fall back in the manufacturing PMI in April was to be expected after activity was boosted by Brexit preparations ahead of the original Brexit date of 29th March, and suggests manufacturing output... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown has further to run After reaching a three-year high in Q4 2018, GDP growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed at the start of this year as the drag from oil output cuts has more than offset a pick-up in activity in the non-oil... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) Preliminary data showing a surprise 0.2% q/q contraction in Mexican GDP in Q1 made for ugly reading, and the risks to our above-consensus growth forecast for this year now lie firmly to the downside... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m decline in monthly real GDP in February was principally due to the unseasonably severe weather this winter and the associated disruption to rail transportation, which had a knock-on... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The April survey data suggest China’s economy has entered a softer patch and underpin our view that most industrial and oil prices will ease back in the coming months. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: More bad news across the region Figures released this month added to the evidence that African economies are struggling this year. The worst news was from South Africa and Angola, where recent activity data suggest that GDP actually... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) The first estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q1 and the labour market data for March were encouraging. But the timelier survey indicators have continued to weaken, and we expect the global economy to remain... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Taiwan held up surprisingly well last quarter, but we doubt this resilience will last. The breakdown of the figures show that domestic demand weakened further last quarter and that... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Given the current political impasse, it is reassuring that the GfK/NOP consumer confidence figure held steady again in April. And with the six-month delay to Brexit removing the chance of an imminent... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Apr.) The decrease in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in April leaves it consistent with subdued quarterly GDP growth this year, in line with our forecast. And we expect the franc to appreciate this year... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) After jumping in March, both manufacturing PMIs fell back in April, disappointing hopes for a further recovery and reinforcing our view that there are still some downside risks to near-term activity. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The extent of the monsoon rains has a significant impact on the livelihoods of millions of families in India given the high level of employment in agriculture. But at the macro level, the monsoon... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currency sell-off not a headwind to growth yet The sell-offs in the Argentine peso and Turkish lira have sparked fears of broader turmoil in EM financial markets. But, so far at least, this has yet to materialise. Sovereign dollar bond spreads... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional GDP growth reaches a trough in Q1 Aggregate GDP growth in Emerging Europe appears to have slowed from 1.9% y/y in Q4 to around 1.3% y/y in Q1. While we don’t anticipate much of a rebound in the coming quarters, it does at least appear... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
