Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s PMIs point to stronger growth in the Gulf but we doubt that this will last as oil prices drop back and fiscal consolidation resumes. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in Egypt continued to... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates in 2019 as reality bites Although the RBA took a more dovish tone when it left rates on hold today we think it will need to consider cutting rates before long as the economic outlook deteriorates. While the RBA still sees... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Dec.) Household spending appears to easing and will probably continue to do so as the outlook deteriorates in 2019. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tighter lending standards point to further slowdown The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests the slowdown in business equipment investment and rate-sensitive consumer spending growth will worsen in the coming months. Loan demand has... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2018) The stronger-than-expected Russian 2018 GDP growth figure of 2.3% suggests that Rosstat has made significant upwards revisions to the quarterly growth figures for the first half of last year. Based on... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer spending to pick up in Germany The weakness of German consumption growth last year resulted partly from problems in the auto industry and partly from slowing real household income growth. Spending growth will probably accelerate a... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German household spending to pick up The weakness of German consumption growth last year resulted partly from problems in the auto industry and partly from slowing real household income growth. Spending growth will probably accelerate a... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Royal Commission will add to slowing credit growth The final report by the Royal Commission may add to the changes in bank behaviour that are already underway. However, the report did not recommend much that is likely to cause an upheaval for the... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) The slight rise in Turkish inflation in January was driven by higher food inflation but even so, coupled with the hawkish tone of the central bank’s latest Inflation Report, it probably means that... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stumbles at the start of 2019 The sharp fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI last month is consistent with a slowdown in industrial production growth to 2% y/y, from around 4% in 2018. This may be an early sign that EM... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Shifting down a gear Markit’s manufacturing PMIs for January add to evidence that the world economy is in the midst of a considerable slowdown and that the risk of a euro-zone recession is rising. The US remains a... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in January provides further reassurance that economic growth has remained solid at the beginning of 2019. We still expect a combination of weaker global... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela’s lessons from history, Vale impact Venezuelan dollar bonds have continued to rally this week on hopes of a swift political transition, debt restructuring and economic overhaul, but history suggests that this could prove optimistic... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surveys point to contagion from euro-zone weakness Manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, released on Friday, dropped sharply in January, suggesting that the recent weakness in the euro-zone is spilling over to its neighbours. Next... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament hits Brexit back to May Parliament hit the Brexit ball back into May’s court this week, leaving us with no clearer picture of how Brexit might unfold than we had this time last week. But beneath the bouncing Brexit headlines... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read