Global Economics Update United Kingdom This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for the UK economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Italy This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Italy’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: judging the impact of the Venezuelan crisis The collapse of Venezuela’s economy has placed strains on Colombia’s social welfare system but, if anything, it is actually likely to have a small positive impact on Colombian GDP growth. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another cut likely in Malaysia before year-end With economic growth likely to remain weak throughout 2019, today’s 25bps rate cut by the central bank in Malaysia (BNM) is likely to be followed by further easing later in the year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still likely to cut before long The Reserve Bank of Australia made only the slightest downward revisions to its forecasts when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today. But it noted that further improvements in the labour... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar./Q1) Subdued growth in real retail sales in Q1 means consumption growth may have eased from the end of 2018. Meanwhile falling import volumes probably meant that net trade made a solid contribution to GDP... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Four implications of the re-escalation in trade tensions President Trump has threatened an imminent expansion of tariffs against China. We expect this to result in stronger headwinds to growth, more policy easing, a weaker renminbi and a stock market rout. 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Indonesia has been suspiciously stable at around 5% over the past five years, and it was no surprise that it recorded another quarter of growth at close to this rate in the first quarter... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? China’s slower housing and infrastructure investment growth will weigh on demand for iron ore and metallurgical coal. Further increases in services exports are unlikely to offset that drag. The coming... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sub-50 Swiss PMI, lower oil prices weigh on NOK As we expected, the KOF Economic Barometer from Switzerland edged down in April and remained consistent with Swiss GDP growth staying subdued in quarterly terms this year. The sub-50 reading for the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The larger-than-expected contraction in Brazilian industrial production in March, of 1.3% m/m, means that the Q1 GDP data are likely to be ugly. We’ll firm up our forecast when more data are released... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong Q1 data probably a false dawn The rebound in euro-zone GDP growth to a respectable 0.4% q/q in the first quarter of this year has been greeted by many as proof that the economy is back on track. But we suspect that the expansion... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Turkey This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Turkey’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC takes a hawkish turn, Brexit hangover in Q2 The most surprising news from the Bank of England’s Inflation Report this week was not the suggestion that interest rates need to rise more quickly than the markets currently anticipate, but the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Apr.) With Brexit having been delayed until 31st October, the slightly more upbeat tone of April’s IHS Markit/CIPS services survey was not too surprising. However, the PMI remained at a low level and we... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Imperial succession & trade talks The reduction in the number of working days will reduce the annual growth rate of industrial production and exports but it will have no impact on the more closely-watched monthly changes. Nor will it... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read