India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Headline consumer price inflation was low and virtually unchanged in January but, more importantly, core inflation remained elevated. The RBI suggested last week that the core rate has been boosted by... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s manufacturing slump should be temporary We suspect that the sharp slowdown in Russia’s manufacturing sector in the second half of 2018 was due to a fall in public spending on military and railway transport. If we’re right, manufacturing... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weak business sentiment another drag on investment The relatively small bounce-back in business conditions in January suggests that the collapse in December was more than a blip. The recent deterioration in sentiment is likely to mean that business... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s economy accelerated to 2.4% y/y in Q4, but momentum in the non-oil sector remained very weak. Low oil prices will weigh on growth in 2019, but the longer-term outlook depends heavily on the... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will the ECB respond to a recession? The next euro-zone recession is likely to begin before the ECB has raised interest rates from the “zero lower bound”. When it happens, we think the Bank will resume its asset purchase programme – but... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in December means that the sector was weaker over Q4 as a whole than we (and probably the statistics office) thought. As a result, there’s a... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP First Estimate (Q4 2018) If there’s a silver lining from the mounting signs that the uncertainty caused by Brexit is holding back GDP growth, it’s that the economy could enjoy a decent rebound if a Brexit deal is agreed. 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian GDP controversy, CEE slowdown The much stronger-than-expected Russian GDP growth figure for 2018, released this week, led to accusations that Rosstat is manipulating the figures, but we think that these data actually paint a... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US sails on as global economy sinks The US economy still appears to be sailing on serenely while the rest of the world economy sinks like a stone. The latest survey data for January show an apparent capitulation in both China and the... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC slashes forecasts, German recession still possible The publication of macroeconomic forecasts by the European Commission is not normally a market-moving event. But the extent of the downward revisions to its GDP forecasts seemed to take the financial... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s change of heart might be overdone The Bank of England drove a bulldozer through its near-term projections this week as it ratcheted up the severity of Brexit uncertainty and the corresponding impact on the economy in its forecast. We... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to strike a dovish note next week At its meeting next week, the Riksbank is likely to deliver a dovish message, perhaps hinting that even the single rate hike that it has pencilled in for this year is now in doubt. 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q4) Norway’s economy ended 2018 on a high note, but we doubt that this will last. We suspect that lower oil prices and weaker activity elsewhere in Europe will weigh on growth, prompting the Norges Bank... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA puts rate cuts back on the table The RBA changed tact this week and shifted away from its long-held tightening bias to a neutral stance on interest rates. This move was accompanied by a new set of downgraded economic forecasts, which... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI changes tack The RBI was able to point to a fall in inflation to justify its rate cut this week. But it also took a more sanguine line on the risks posed by still-high core inflation. We believe this will prove to... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German stimulus no game changer for euro-zone With the euro-zone economy slowing and the ECB short of ammunition, there will be growing calls for a big fiscal stimulus from Germany. However, we suspect that the German government will fall short... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read